Germany and the USA want to supply armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. Politically, this may seem like a bang, but militarily, it’s just symbolism.
The German infantry fighting vehicle Marder, here during an exercise.
The news hit home: Germany is supplying the Ukraine with around 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, the USA are planning 50 Bradleys and France an as yet undisclosed number of AMX-10 RC scout tanks. This is a reversal, especially in the course of the German government. So far, it has denied Ukraine heavy weapons in its fight against Russian occupation. But what politically resembles a drumbeat is militarily pure symbolism. Because the use of armored personnel carriers only makes tactical sense in combination with main battle tanks. The delivery of main battle tanks like the Leopard 2 by the western states is still out of the question.
At the same time, Ukraine has repeatedly asked for it. In order to liberate the areas in the Donbass or to fend off a Russian spring offensive, his country needs 300 main battle tanks, 600 to 700 infantry fighting vehicles and 500 artillery systems, says army chief Valery Zalushni. A total of 1,500 weapon systems: the number can be explained by the Ukrainian losses since the beginning of the war.
First, the Ukrainians lost large parts of their own 2,400 main battle and armored personnel carriers in repelling the Russian attack on Kyiv and the areas in the south and east of the country. The stocks of 1,400 older Soviet tanks delivered by Western countries in the summer were then lost in large numbers during the Ukrainian counter-offensives of the past few months.
A scenario like in the First World War
The Ukrainian army is currently setting up two new large units (corps) near Poltava and Dnipro. Western military experts assume that the Ukrainians want to attack at Melitopol after the end of the mud period in order to encircle the Russians in an area from Zaporizhia via Cherson to Crimea. 40 Marder, 50 Bradley and French AMX-10 RC can only be a start.
The Russians have expanded and fortified their positions in the Donbass in recent months. The ground is riddled with anti-tank ditches surrounded by mine barriers and barricades. What sounds like a WWI scenario can still be an effective defense today. In order to break through these positions, the Ukrainians urgently need main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers that act in concert.
Time is running out. For weeks, the Russians have been following up fresh forces that they mobilized in the fall. The longer Ukraine waits to start its offensive, the more losses it is likely to have. In order to be able to break into well-fortified lines, soldiers are first needed to clear mines and wire entanglements before the tanks can then penetrate. Armored personnel carriers bring the soldiers as close as possible; the Marder has room for six grenadiers, the Bradley for up to seven. The battle tanks are needed for protection, especially against enemy battle tanks or to fight enemy defenses.
Do the martens come with or without an anti-tank weapon?
A marten can also attack itself. It is armed with a 20mm cannon with a range of 1200 meters. Its caliber is significantly smaller and less powerful than that of a main battle tank. Therefore, the Marder also has the so-called Mells system for anti-tank defense. Mells is a missile launcher with a range of up to five kilometers. The German Bundeswehr procured it primarily to arm the new Puma infantry fighting vehicle. At the time of going to press, it was unclear whether the armored personnel carriers for the Ukraine should be delivered with or without Mells – because the Bundeswehr doesn’t have many of them either. However, an armored personnel carrier without an anti-tank weapon would reduce the combat effectiveness of Ukraine a further piece.
On Friday evening, the Ministry of Defense in Berlin announced that the 40 martens should come from both industry and Bundeswehr stocks. Although the Bundeswehr has a new infantry fighting vehicle in the form of the Puma, it still has stocks of its predecessor, the Marder. The reason for this lies in the technical difficulties of the past few years at the Puma. The army then decided to keep the Marder in service in four Panzergrenadier battalions for the time being.
On paper, each of these battalions is armed with 41 modernized Marders, but in reality there are far fewer. The vehicles are also equipped with Mells. A battalion with 50 vehicles had to be integrated into the NATO Rapid Reaction Force at short notice after Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht decided not to send the new Puma infantry fighting vehicle due to technical problems.
Ukraine needs the vehicles, if so, then as soon as possible. The German armaments group Rheinmetall recently had around 100 Marders from old Bundeswehr stocks. 40 of them are going to Greece in a ring exchange for Soviet tanks. The Ministry of Defense did not say whether part of the Ukraine tanks will be taken from this contingent. Because the other 60 in the Rheinmetall inventory would first have to be prepared after they have stood in the open air for years. That would take up to a year.
The training of the Ukrainians should go quickly
It should be clear that the 40 tanks will be delivered by March at the latest. That’s how long the training of the Ukrainian crews on the Marder will take, provided that it can begin in the coming weeks. Like the Leopard 2 main battle tank, the Marder was also developed when the Bundeswehr was still a conscript army. The soldiers had to be able to quickly learn how to use it. Therefore, military experts assume that the training of the Ukrainian soldiers will not take longer than six to eight weeks.
Developed in the 1960s, the Marder is considered a robust vehicle with a powerful diesel engine. Unlike the successor Puma, it still shoots and drives even when the electronics have failed. The crew can repair minor damage to the drive or the gun themselves. According to the German Ministry of Defence, the ammunition will “initially come from Bundeswehr stocks”. The Berlin ministry did not say what that means in concrete terms and whether Germany is asking allies for more ammunition.
In order for Marder and Bradley to be successful, there is one more requirement in addition to the parallel use of main battle tanks. The Ukrainians must fight the Russian artillery. Shells or rockets falling from the sky are deadly for tanks. At the top they have the least protection. To defend against artillery systems, the United States has delivered 50 radar systems to the Ukrainians. They determine the firing point of Russian guns and thus make it possible to eliminate enemy artillery through targeted fire. For months, the Russians have been trying to track down and destroy these radar systems.
The next meeting in the so-called Ramstein format will take place on January 20th. The western states are expected to agree on further arms deliveries to Ukraine. If they really want to put the country in a position to liberate its occupied areas, then, say military experts, they would have to decide to supply main battle tanks in addition to more infantry fighting vehicles.
“An infantry fighting vehicle without a battle tank is like a nail without a hammer,” says Markus Reisner, a colonel in the Austrian army and an expert on the Ukraine war. Both of them could only develop their abilities together.