Russia continues its offensive on Mariupol whose fall is only a matter of days. Its progress is slowed down in the north of Donbass while it retreats to the south-west of the country in Mykolaiv. Fighting is still on hold in Kyiv.
The more the war progresses, the more the lines freeze. The fighting in Ukraine continues, unabated, but it seems to be concentrated on certain very specific points. In this case in the north of Donbass, in Mariupol (South-East) and around Mykolaiv (South-West). At this stage of the war, the positions are increasingly tight, the advances are made meter after meter, attacks after counter-attacks.
And what the Ukrainian General Staff suggests is that its army is no longer entirely subject to the advance of Russian troops, is no longer in a purely defensive strategy, but is engaging in counter-attacks “in all directions”. A first, notes the daily report dated March 18 from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Mykolaiv
It is around Mykolaiv that the Ukrainians seem to be in a position of strength. The Kyiv army has managed to push Kremlin troops more than 10 km from the city in the past few days, even to the border with Kherson Oblast, according to the Wall Street Journal . In return, the Russians continue to bombard the city at an infernal rate. The air raids followed one another at such a rapid pace on Saturday that the authorities did not even have time to warn the population. “We cannot give the alert for air raids because by the time we announce this tornado, it is already there”saddens the governor of the region, Vitaliy Kim.
The day before, six rockets fell in the early morning on a military base in the north, on barracks where 200 soldiers were sleeping. No precise assessment has been provided but dozens of deaths are feared. This seems to fit into what Michel Goya, military historiandescribed as a “air strike campaign on military objectives (Lviv air maintenance site for example) and the supply axes». It is also to this campaign that we owe the use on Saturday by Russia, and it would be the first time, of a hypersonic “Kinjal” missile to destroy an underground weapons warehouse in the west of the Ukraine.
The map of the situation on March 18
Kharkiv and North Donbass
Despite information from the Pentagon indicating its fall on Thursday evening, the city center of Izyum would still be under Ukrainian control, the ISW understands. Ukrainian troops, using two airmobile brigades backed by the Territorial Defense Forces assisting in the evacuation of civilians, reportedly managed to push back the Russians and retake some outlying neighborhoods during the day Friday.
Closer to the self-proclaimed republic of Luhansk, still in the northern Donbass, the city of Severodonetsk is under high pressure. The Russians have succeeded since Thursday in consolidating their advance in Rubizhne, the northeastern suburbs of the city. Further south, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed on Friday to have seized 90% of Donetsk Oblast on Friday, without this information being able to be verified.
Fighting in downtown Mariupol also allowed the Russians to advance. They reportedly seized an administrative building in the eastern part of the city on Friday, less than 10 kilometers from the center. “Maybe another week before the capture of the city”, Judge Michael Goya while there is no news of the hundreds of refugees stranded under the bombed-out city theater on Wednesday.
The fall of the city would allow Russia to reorganize and redeploy its troops, but “not for two weeks”, according to the military historian. Either towards Zaporijia to take the Ukrainian troops from Donbass from the rear by making the junction with those of Izyoum and Severodonetsk. Or towards Mykolaiv to resume its advance campaign towards the strategic port of Odessa which would become the last Ukrainian pocket on the coast.
No Russian offensive this week near the capital, only a few isolated fights, especially in the northwestern periphery (Irpin, Boutcha). Vladimir Putin’s troops appear to be on standby, giving the Ukrainians some space to counterattack with a “harassment on the rear and the logistical axes (by drones in particular)”, specifies Michel Goya on Twitter.
In contrast, according to several Open Source Intelligence (Osint) Twitter accounts, which meticulously process and verify data accessible online, the Russians would have succeeded in crossing the Desna River, south of Chernihiv, potentially opening a new axis of attack on this city that has been shelled since the start of the war. And also a new axis northeast of Kyiv, if they manage to hold this fragile position.