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The morale of bosses and households at the heart of the session


Big day ahead. Investors will be sensitive to the preliminary PMI indices in the euro zone, the United Kingdom and the United States. They will also analyze the results of American consumer giants Best Buy, Abercombie & Fitch and Ralph Lauren.

Morning Meeting

The morale of bosses and households at the heart of the session

It is through another prism than the official figures of the US Department of Commerce that investors will be interested in inflation: that of corporate results. The consumer electronics giant BestBuy will release its quarterly results. He will be imitated by Abercombie & Fitch and Ralph Lauren in the textile sector. Their results and, perhaps even more so, their outlook will make it possible to assess the impact of the rise in consumer prices on the morale of households and their decision-making in terms of purchases. In France, operators will be interested in the half-yearly results of Company of the Alps and Manutanin addition to the turnover of Software to March 31. Finally, the season for general shareholders’ meetings continues, with meetings ofAir France-KLM, Agricultural credit, Valeo Where Vallourec.

A settling but no contraction

On the economic front, the day will not be easy. Preliminary PMI indices from the IHS Markit Institute, which trace the expectations of bosses in the manufacturing and services sectors in May, will be published during the morning. ” Until April, PMI surveys showed only a fairly limited decline “, notes the analysis firm Oddo BHF. In fact, the indices are holding above the 50 mark, which separates the expansion phase from the contraction zone of activity. In May, they could ease – while remaining above 50 – due to the persistence of inflationary pressures and fears of economic recession (see table below). In the United Kingdom, where the Brexit problem is added, the indices are expected at 55 in the manufacturing sector and 57 in the services sector in May, against 55.8 and 58.9 respectively in April. On the other side of the Atlantic, the economy seems less exposed to the war in Ukraine than Europe, but it is undergoing more severe monetary tightening, which could result in a slight decline in the S&P PMI indices from 59.2 to 57.8 between April and May in the manufacturing sector, and from 55.6 to 55.3 in the service sector.

Country

Indicator

Consensus

Previous

France

Manufacturing PMI

55.2

55.7

France

PMI services

58.6

58.9

Germany

Manufacturing PMI

54

54.6

Germany

PMI services

57.2

57.6

Eurozone

Manufacturing PMI

54.8

55.5

Eurozone

PMI services

57.5

57.7

Eurozone

Composite PMI

55

55.8

Among the other statistics to follow, we will be interested in theRichemond Fed manufacturing index in May (consensus: 10, compared to 14 in April), to sales of new homes in the United States in April (consensus: 750,000, compared to 763,000 in March) and atbusiness climate index for May in France (consensus: 105, compared to 106 in April).


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