The increase was expected, it is confirmed. The deputies and senators, meeting in a joint committee on Monday, October 23, had barely found a compromise on the “full employment” bill, supposed to allow the government to achieve its objective of a rate of unemployment of 5% – compared to 7.2% currently – than the figures communicated, Wednesday October 25, by the direction of animation of research, studies and statistics (Dares), attached to the Ministry of Labor, and Pôle emploi show an increase in the number of job seekers in the third quarter.
Thus the number of people registered with Pôle emploi without any activity (category A) increased by 0.6%, with 3.028 million people across the entire country (including overseas, except Mayotte), compared to 3.011 million in second trimester. Comparing over one year, the trend is more favorable, with a 3.8% drop in workforce over the last twelve months.
The increase is, however, less marked if we add job seekers in reduced activity (categories B and C), + 0.2%. If the number of people registered in mainland France in category B – those who have worked less than seventy-eight hours in a month – is growing strongly (+ 3.1%), those who have worked more than seventy -eight hours (category C), go in the opposite direction (− 2.3%). Data which suggests a transfer between categories.
“These figures are not necessarily good newsdeciphers Mathieu Plane, head of the analysis and forecasting department at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). We can think that with a contraction in the job market, employers offer more short contracts than long contracts. » If we take all the people required to look for work, the public operator lists 5.3 million people registered in France (including overseas, excluding Mayotte).
Increase in unemployed under-25s
The dynamics are different depending on the age groups. The bad news concerns unemployed young people under 25, who see their number increase by 2% compared to the second quarter and by 3.2% over one year. A confirmation that the effects of the apprenticeship reform are indeed over.
Conversely, the number of people aged 50 or over registered with Pôle emploi in category A continues to fall, of the order of the thickness of the line in the third quarter (− 0.1%), but to a much greater extent. significant over the last twelve months (− 6.5%). “The big question now is whether this increase, which has been expected for months, anticipates a more violent continuation in the coming months”estimates economics professor at Neoma Business school Gilbert This. “Everything suggests that we have reached a low point after a downward trend since 2015 and that things will now be reversed”explains Mathieu Plane.
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