The economy is the main concern of Brazilian voters, one month before the presidential election (AFP/Rafael MARTINS)
The number one priority for the majority of Brazilians is their wallets, a month before a presidential election which is being played out against a backdrop of double-digit inflation, high unemployment and food insecurity.
This is the case of Celia Silva, a 61-year-old marketing analyst met by AFP in a market in Sao Paulo. She hopes that soon she will “no longer have to juggle to finish the months”.
According to a poll by the Datafolha institute, economic concerns will determine the vote of 53% of Brazilians, forced to choose between far-right president Jair Bolsonaro and the favorite, the former left-wing head of state Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The tragic Covid crisis (685,000 dead) has plunged millions of Brazilians into crisis, and 33.1 million of them are suffering from hunger.
The latest economic indicators have hinted at the beginning of an upturn.
Unemployment fell to 9.1% (May-July) and the number of job seekers fell below 10 million for the first time in six years.
Inflation also seems to have peaked: -0.68% in July, its first monthly decline since May 2020.
Finally, growth in Latin America’s largest economy was stronger than expected in the second quarter, at 1.2%.
“The numbers are fantastic” launched Jair Bolsonaro a little quickly at the end of August in a television interview. “Brazil is doing better than many other countries.”
– Hungry Brazilians –
The improvement in the economy may have had an impact on voting intentions, with the latest Datafolha poll published on Thursday showing some narrowing of the gap between Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, which fell from 15 points in mid- August at 13 points now in favor of the left-wing candidate.
“The worst is over, the economy is improving and employment is recovering faster than expected,” said Igor Barenboim, chief economist at Reach Capital consultants.
But in the wallets of Brazilians, the improvement is not palpable.
“The average salary (2,693 reais, or 517 euros) is at one of its worst levels in ten years,” said André Perfeito, of Necton brokers.
Inflation remains high, at 10.07% in July over the last 12 months. It has been in double digits since September 2021, weighing down the purchasing power of the poorest.
Food was 14.72% more expensive last July over 12 months, worsening the scourge of hunger.
“There have never been so many people suffering from hunger,” said Paulo Feldmann, professor of economics at the University of Sao Paulo. “With more than 60% of the population food insecure, Brazil today exceeded the world average.”
This state of affairs, denied on television by President Bolsonaro, gives Lula an advantage at the polls: he has lifted 30 million Brazilians out of poverty.
– Chicken feet –
In August, and until December, the government increased from 400 (77 euros) to 600 reais (115 euros) the monthly social aid for 20.2 million families benefiting from the “Auxilio Brasil”, a revisited version of the “Bolsa Familia” created by Lula.
Subsidies for gas have been decided, as well as compensation for truck drivers.
These actions are very costly for public finances. Public debt, which represents 77.6% of GDP, “risks following an explosive trajectory”, warns Mr. Barenboim.
Many commentators have judged these electoral expenses, a few weeks before the presidential election. And they will weigh heavily on the finances of the next government.
But these expenses have contributed to improving the perception of the economic situation, which will recover in the coming months, estimate 58% of Brazilians, polled by Datafolha.
A panel of analysts consulted by the Central Bank have revised their growth forecast for this year upwards to 2.1% from 0.28% in January.
Meanwhile, in the Sao Paulo market, many Brazilians already know who they are going to vote for.
Edelzuita Ferreira, a 71-year-old retiree, will choose Lula “to go back to eating red meat and stop eating chicken feet”.
Moreover, the icon of the left promised Brazilians “steaks and beer”, while Mr. Bolsonaro said “there is no filet mignon for everyone”.
Adriana Do Prado, 38, will be faithful to the latter. “We are standing thanks to him,” she said. His restaurant did not close during the Covid thanks to this anti-containment president.
© 2022 AFP
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