PARIS (Reuters) – The global economy will slow slightly next year but the risks of a hard landing have reduced, despite growing debt and uncertainty over interest rates, a the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said on Wednesday.
Global gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2024 after an anticipated increase to 2.9% this year, the OECD said in its latest economic forecasts. Global growth for 2023 was previously seen at 3.0%.
The global economy will then rebound in 2025, with a growth forecast of 3.0%.
Advanced economies should experience a soft landing, according to the OECD, while the American economy is stronger than expected.
Previously expected at 2.2% this year, growth in the United States was revised upwards, to 2.4%, before a less significant slowdown in 2024 than previously anticipated (growth of 1.5% compared to a previous forecast of 1.3%).
While it declared that the risks of a hard landing for the economy had reduced in the United States as elsewhere in the world, the OECD noted that the risk of a recession had not been ruled out, citing the weak real estate markets, high oil prices and sluggish borrowing.
China’s economy is also expected to slow as it faces a housing crisis and consumers become more cautious amid growing uncertainty about the future.
In its forecasts, the OECD sees the world’s second-largest economy growing by 4.7% next year after 5.2% this year – percentages slightly higher than those communicated in September – and slowing further in 2025, with growth of 4.2%.
Regarding the euro zone, the economy is expected to rebound in 2024, with growth expected at 0.9% compared to a forecast of 0.6% this year, and continue to accelerate in 2025 with growth of 1.1%. %, in the wake of Germany, which is recovering from a recession.
However, the OECD warned that, due to the high level of bank financing, the full impact of rising borrowing costs remained uncertain and could weigh more than expected on growth.
Growth forecasts for France have been revised downwards, with the economy expected to slow next year before rebounding in 2025. The OECD anticipates growth of 0.8% in 2024, compared to 0.9% this year. year, then 1.2% in 2025.
In Japan, the only major economy where interest rates have not yet been raised, growth is expected at 1.7% in 2023 before slowing to 1.0% next year and then rebounding to 1.2%. % in 2025.
(Report by Leigh Thomas, written by Jean Terzian, edited by Blandine Hénault)
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