” Powell and I could have used a better term than transient », « expect inflation to remain high », « there is no doubt that we have enormous inflationary pressures ”… Here are a few selected pieces that illustrate the extreme concerns of the moment about the soaring prices that are eating away at consumer purchasing power and corporate margins and which, in turn, are pushing central banks to accelerate their interest rate hikes. interest, detrimental to any progress in the equity markets.
These statements do not come from any person, but from Janet Yellen, former president of the American Federal Reserve and current Secretary of the Treasury. In short, a great name in economics and monetary policy. She was speaking Tuesday before the Senate Finance Committee, at a time when inflation is prancing to 40-year highs. At 8.3% over one year in April, it has certainly declined slightly compared to 8.5% in March, but not as much as the consensus had hoped (8.1%). The next figures will be crucial for the evolution of Wall Street, Europe’s undisputed compass. They will be published this Friday at 2:30 p.m. Analysts are counting on a stabilization at 8.3% of the increase in prices over one year for May despite an increase of 0.5% over one month. Excluding food and energy, that is to say excluding volatile elements, a decline to 5.9% over one year is nevertheless expected, after 6.2% in April.
Credit Suisse in loss
If Wall Street held on to these comments yesterday, preferring to capitalize on the rise in oil prices, the Cac 40 only briefly benefited from this momentum, quickly falling into the red early in the morning on Wednesday. The flagship index lost 0.23% to 6,485.44 points.
Banks are generally in the red, BNP Paribas, Agricultural credit and Societe Generale yielding 1% to 1.5%. Swiss credit warned on its next quarterly accounts, due to the consequences of the war in Ukraine and rate hikes in the investment branch. The results will be in loss, despite the good performance recorded in the trading division thanks to the increase in volatility.
How many ?
Before the American inflation, the operators will follow very closely, Thursday, the decision of monetary policy of the European Central Bank, and especially the press conference of its president Christine Lagarde, who should prepare the ground for a first increase in key rates in the euro zone, expected for this month of July. ” The only real question ahead of this week’s meeting is not whether or not the Governing Council will raise interest rates in July, but by how much.summarizes the research firm Ebury, some members seem to be in favor of more aggressive measures [que 25 points de base], notably Knot and Holzmann. Markets will want to know if this is the view of a small portion of board members or one shared by many. »
While waiting for these two major meetings, we will have to be satisfied, this Wednesday morning, with the new economic forecasts from the OECD and the GDP for the first quarter in the euro zone, then, in the afternoon, with trade statistics. US wholesale stocks in April and US Department of Energy weekly oil inventories.