Advertorial — This is the first good news of the end of the year! Ending with an increase of 6.2%, the Cac 40 recorded its second best month of 2023 in November, behind the 9.4% jump recorded in January. This brings the flagship index of the Paris Stock Exchange to less than 3% of its historic high of 7,581.26 points recorded on April 24.
The second good news concerns inflation… As hoped, it is slowing down almost everywhere in the world. In the euro zone, consumer prices increased, in overall data, by only 2.4% year-on-year in October, their lowest increase since July 2021 and a level only 0.4 points higher than the European Central Bank’s 2% target. Same observation in the United States, where they only increased by 3.2% over one year, a sharp decline compared to 3.7% in September.
Have central banks won their battle against prices? It is very possible and it is, in any case, the central scenario of investors, who are now even anticipating the first interest rate cuts during the first half of 2024, from March for the most optimistic. . The famous “rhetoric” of central banks is, moreover, starting to change. The influential governor of the Fed, Christopher Waller, has in fact officially declared that if the decline in inflation continues “for several more months… three months, four months, five months… [les membres du comité pourraient] start lowering rates, simply because inflation is lower.”
Big gaps within values
Enough to maintain optimism on the stock markets, the first winners in an environment of lower rates… Seasonality is also favorable: Since the creation of the Cac 40, the average increase in the months of November and December was 2.32%, with fairly comparable increases in these two months. These are, moreover, traditionally two of the four best months of the year, behind April (+2.59%) and October (+1.97%). Since the creation of the index, we can always point out that 21 months of November have been winning, against 14 losers. Likewise, 24 Decembers were winners, compared to only 11 losers. Above all, the month of December was positive when November itself was positive 17 times out of 21.
With the increase of more than 6% which has just been recorded in November, a good part of this rally has perhaps already been achieved, but, one thing is certain, the Paris Stock Exchange is on the verge of signing an excellent vintage 2023, with an increase, to date, of more than 13% since January 1. On the value side, large industrial companies take the lion’s share, starting with the automobile manufacturer Stellantis, which jumped 50% in the space of eleven months. Follows a nice group shot of progressions at 30% from Saffron, Liquid airboth at historic peaks, andSaint Gobain. Luxury is also having a very good year, despite the lack of economic recovery in China, just like the semiconductor manufacturer STMicroelectronics. Conversely,Worldline, Alstom And Teleperformance fall by more than 40%.
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