We are consuming more and more oil, and the situation will not change for several years.
The synthesis of the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published last March, paints an unequivocal picture of the current situation. Human activity has caused the global climate to rise by 1.1°C compared to pre-industrial times, and although CO2 emissions2 stop abruptly, the temperature would continue to rise over the next few years, likely reaching +1.5°C in 2030 and potentially +2°C in 2050. In other words, rising temperatures seem inevitable for coming decades due to climate inertia.
Towards a consumption record in 2023
This observation is not new, the IPCC has been working on the subject for more than 30 years and has published alarming reports. What has changed, however, at least to a certain extent, is an awareness on the part of public opinion and the implementation of the first actions aimed at limiting CO emissions.2 in the air.
Except that the climate is not the only one to present a certain inertia, it is also the case of the world economy. And aside from the COVID-ridden 2020, oil consumption continues to grow year on year. It could even break records in 2023 at 102.3 million barrels per day, according to monthly projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This goes against the predictions made in 2020.
Oil demand is driven by so-called emerging countries, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, and it should continue to grow at least until 2028. China should thus consume 16.3 million barrels this year. Conversely, relatively sluggish growth in Europe limits the increase in demand with 14.9 Mb/d in 2023, compared to 15.7 Mb/d in 2019 (before the health crisis), and 24.7 Mb/d , compared to 25 Mb/d for North America.
” Our global oil demand growth forecast for 2023 has been revised up to 2.2 mb/d, with China’s rebound even stronger than expected. The world’s second largest consumer of oil after the United States will account for almost 60% of global growth in 2023. Record demand in China, India and the Middle East at the start of the year more than compensated for the sluggishness of the industrial activity and oil consumption in the OECD“, specifies the report of the IEA.
Peak consumption in 2028
The peak in global oil consumption, estimated at 105.7 Mb/d, is in any case not expected before 2028, according to IEA estimates.
There will then come a slow period of decline linked to the transformation of the economies. This is what the French Petroleum Institute asserts:This trend is explained, according to the IEA, by energy efficiency, the penetration of electric vehicles and the replacement of oil for the production of electricity by natural gas or renewable energiesespecially in the Middle East.»
Source : The world
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