Lhe publication of INSEE’s demographic report on January 16 gave rise to a series of frightened reactions – “ Has the West entered a new phase? », was thus alarmed The Express – and the injunction of the President of the Republic to initiate a “rearmament demographic », during his press conference the same day. Many comments have been devoted to the inappropriate nature of this term and the caricatured view of women that underlies it. Such an expression in fact suggests that having children constitutes a sort of patriotic duty for them and that their function is above all to increase the French population. It also implies that there is no question of using immigration to increase France’s natural balance, in line with the “immigration” law.
To engage this “rearmament”, Emmanuel Macron proposed in particular the implementation of a new shorter and better paid parental leave, open to both parents until the child is 6 months old. Could this be enough to make families want to have more children and counteract the decline in fertility observed over the past ten years in France? To answer this question, we must try to understand its origin.
Several explanations compete. This could be a delayed effect of the economic and financial crisis of 2008-2009. In many other countries, this has had a fairly rapid impact on fertility, detailed INSEE. It could be that the shock which, in France, seemed to have been cushioned by family policy, appeared there later. Another hypothesis, which incriminates the reforms of family benefits under the Hollande presidency, is, however, not convincing, because the decline in the birth rate began before they came into force.
Darkened horizon
Since in 2021 fertility had begun a small rebound, should we not also blame, for the declines in 2022 and 2023, the general climate of great gloom, due in particular to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia , to the threatening geopolitical tensions all over the world and to the comments of the media which constantly talk about the decline of the West? Should we not also make the link with the deleterious French political climate and, above all, with the continued rise in inflation, which has considerably reduced household income? The number of people who are poor or who have to restrict themselves has jumped. But having a child has a cost, and couples need stability to plan for the future. Finally, climate change and its ever-increasing manifestations are increasingly darkening the horizon and making long-term projects fragile, particularly for the youngest.
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