“The political situation on both sides of the Rhine revives the question of the future of the Old Continent”

Tribune. It is a recurring obsession of the French elites: to try to acclimatize the German model of Rhine capitalism, to copy its professional training, its exporting SMEs, its corporate governance and, ultimately, its manufacturing specialization. Unfortunately, all these efforts are far from having been successful. It is important to understand why, at a time when the arrival of a new coalition in Berlin suggests the possibility of a new Franco-German “convergence”.

From the period of reconstruction and modernization after the Second World War, major differences appeared between the two banks of the Rhine, due among other things to a greater weight of industry in Germany, and agriculture in France. . Admittedly, the constitution of the single market, from 1986, stimulates the growth of the two economies, which then seem to come closer.

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However, the creation of the single currency in 1999 changed the situation, since the euro actually pushed for the deepening of the advantages specific to each country: German industry prospered both because of the internal market and that of exports. towards China, while deindustrialisation continues on the other side of the Rhine.

Two distinct growth modes

The opposition between the durable and large surpluses of the trade balance of the one, the slow but persistent erosion of the competitiveness of the other underline that the two economies implement two distinct modes of growth: the first is based on the export of high added value manufactured products, the second on domestic consumption.

In fact, these two regimes reinforce each other: Germany is thus overcoming the weak growth in domestic consumption, France the fragility of its productive fabric in the face of increased competition. This lasting differentiation itself refers to two different conceptions of the relations between the political field and the economic sphere.

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On the other side of the Rhine, ordoliberalism continues to serve as a compass for government decisions: the stability of the legal regime is the foundation of prosperity and economic dynamism. On this side prevails the primacy of the political, whose decisions are discretionary, which cannot be incorporated into a set of formalized and immutable rules.

In Germany, deliberation and the search for compromise

The pandemic has also legitimized the suspension of these rules, to the satisfaction of France. However, the question of their application, or their reform, will not fail to be asked again by the coalition led by Olaf Scholz.

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