The Italians began to vote, Sunday, September 25 in the morning, to elect their new Parliament, a ballot that the far right approaches favorite. While more than 50 million Italians are expected to vote this Sunday, some of them were already queuing before the polls even opened at 7 a.m. Voting will close at 11 p.m.; the first exit polls will give an overview of the results.
At only 45, Giorgia Meloni, leader of the post-fascist Fratelli d’Italia party, credited with nearly a quarter of the votes in the latest polls, is the favorite to lead a coalition government in which the he extreme right largely dominates the classical right. An earthquake on the scale of Italy, founding country of Europe and third economy of the euro zone, but also of the European Union (EU), which should deal with this ideologue close to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
“In Europe, they are all worried to see Meloni in government (…). The party is over, Italy will start defending its national interests”, she warned during her campaign. This former admirer of Mussolini whose motto is “God, Country, Family” succeeded in demonizing his party and catalysing the discontent and frustrations of his compatriots on his behalf by camping in the opposition while all the other parties supported the national unity government of Mario Draghi.
The key role of the undecided and participation
But the mass is not said: “Unpredictable, elections are played on emotion and at the last moment”, recalled Emiliana De Blasio, professor of sociology at the Luiss University of Rome, to AFP, while emphasizing the key role of the undecided, estimated at around 20%, and the importance of the final rate of participation. The scores of the 5-Star Movement (M5S, formerly anti-system), with the institution of a minimum income for the poorest to its credit, and the Democratic Party (PD, left), well established locally, could hold surprises, in particular in the south of the country.
Whichever government emerges from the elections, which will not take office until the end of October, its path already appears to be strewn with pitfalls. He will have to manage the crisis caused by soaring prices while Italy is crumbling under a debt representing 150% of GDP, the highest ratio in the euro zone behind Greece. In this context, the windfall of the European post-pandemic recovery plan, of which Italy is by far the first beneficiary, will be essential to keep the peninsula afloat.
“Italy cannot afford to deprive itself of these sums of money”observes the historian Marc Lazar, judging therefore “Meloni’s room for maneuver is very limited” on the economy. On the other hand, it could scrap against Brussels alongside Warsaw and Budapest “on questions of defense of the national interest in relation to European interests”. Like the French Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni has finally given up on leaving the euro, but she is calling for a “revision of the rules of the stability pact”suspended due to the health crisis, which set a ceiling of 3% of GDP for the deficit and 60% for the debt.
Ultra-conservative and anti-migrant
On social issues, this Roman appears to be ultra-conservative: “Yes to the natural family, no to the LGBT lobby! Yes to sexual identity, no to gender ideology! Yes to the culture of life, no to the abyss of death! »proclaimed in June the one who also promises to fight “against the Islamization of Europe”.
His coming to power would also result in a closure of the country, where tens of thousands of migrants land each year, a prospect that worries NGOs rescuing boats fleeing poverty in Africa.
While Italy’s governmental instability is legendary, experts already agree on the short life expectancy of this coalition where Ms. Meloni would have a lot to do to manage her cumbersome allies, be it the indestructible Silvio Berlusconi or anti-migrant tribune Matteo Salvini.