For various reasons, States consider technologies as strategic. Some technologies are seen as a lever for economic growth, others as a means of reducing dependence on foreign suppliers, or a defensive measure, a means of obtaining economic or national security advantages, or even of serve as a strike force in times of conflict. The same is true for satellites, cellular networks, atomic energy, chip production, and much more.
Quantum computing is a strategic new technology with high stakes. Its ability to solve problems and perform calculations that no existing classical computer can – or ever will – opens up a plethora of possibilities and strategic challenges.
Vulnerability to quantum attacks
Much attention has been paid to decryption using quantum computers. Global financial systems as well as many computer networks are protected by an encryption system that was once considered infallible. Because indeed, it would take conventional computers many years to break it. But a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could crack the code in hours. Thus, bank accounts, medical records and other sensitive information could suddenly be exposed, causing untold damage.
Although the arrival of quantum computers capable of cracking cryptography is not expected for another 5 to 10 years, malicious actors are already storing sensitive information encrypted in order to be ready to decode it in the future. Even taking the blockchain into account, both public-key and re-keyed addresses are vulnerable to quantum attacks, raising concerns about bitcoin and blockchain-secured contracts.
These same quantum technologies can also provide a strong defense structure. Several organizations are using quantum technology, and specifically quantum key distribution, to create encryption systems that are much harder to break or break.
Strategic advantage of quantum technologies
However, if companies really need to consider the positive and negative impact of quantum computers on their encryption and communication systems, they also need to know that they can derive strategic advantage from them.
Quantum technology can be a game-changer when it comes to working with huge volumes of data that has many variables and changes rapidly over time. This can concern both “moonshot” projects such as the fight against cancer or the decoding of the human gene, but also everyday issues such as the optimization of maritime routes or the balancing of personal stock portfolios.
For example, energy storage: quantum computers are particularly suited to the simulation of chemical and pharmaceutical compounds. Indeed, chemical interaction takes place at the level of quantum physics and, as Nobel laureate Richard Feynman pointed out 40 years ago, a quantum system is the best choice for simulating quantum phenomena. In particular, quantum supercomputers, and the software that drives them, can be used to develop higher quality, more efficient, lighter and larger capacity batteries.
A global “quantum arms race”
Another example is machine learning (ML). Whether improving conversational AI, solving protein folding problems, or analyzing images and video, countries that develop cutting-edge ML capabilities enjoy strategic advantages. Quantum computing opens new perspectives for ML. They arise from the ability of a quantum computer to load much more information than classical computers, to perform many calculations simultaneously, and to use these capabilities to discover new and meaningful data patterns.
This unique quantum ability to perform many calculations in parallel, rather than sequentially, is useful for improving weather forecasts, more accurately assessing financial risks, and/or streamlining supply chains.
Several countries are aware of this. Indeed, we are witnessing a global “quantum arms race”, similar to that of the space conquest of a few decades ago. China, for example, is said to have invested $10 billion in a national quantum program. The European Union has undertaken to pay significant sums, in addition to those which the Member States pay individually. The United States released $1.2 billion through the National Quantum Initiative, followed by another $1 billion in National Science Foundation funding for AI and quantum centers. Additionally, several other nations, including Russia, Japan, India, Germany, and France, have created their own national quantum programs.
How to win the quantum race?
However, achieving and sustaining strategic advantages requires long-term planning and focused execution. Some experts even believe that the United States has lost the “5G war” to China. Can the United States afford to lose the quantum race as well? What would happen if China or another state tomorrow unveiled a computer capable of cracking financial encryption or accurately simulating a complex molecule? In a short moment, the world would be completely different.
Nevertheless, there are four ways countries can increase their chances of winning this race:
- Invest in basic research
Just as the National Institutes of Health have invested heavily in the fight against HIV, governments can use their budgets to encourage academic and industrial research centers to develop next-generation architectures and build better computers.
- Invest in the workforce
Quantum computing involves a different approach to software design. Currently, the majority of quantum computers are programmed by people with doctorates in physics and quantum information science. But these profiles are increasingly difficult to find. By helping train the next generation of quantum software engineers and investing in technologies that make quantum programming more accessible, countries can help bridge the gap between supply and demand in the software market. employment in the sector.
- Create a starting market for these products
To be a pioneer of the free market. During the first space race, it became clear that computers had to be miniaturized using integrated circuits. By guaranteeing the initial purchase of a large quantity of products, governments can reduce the risks associated with these costly investments.
- Control the export of strategic technologies
Although the ITAR (International Traffic in Arms Regulations) has some flaws, the agency has been largely successful in preventing powerful weapons technologies from falling into the wrong hands.
We are at a turning point. So let’s not wait for the quantum equivalent of the “Sputnik moment”. Rarely is a new technology able to deliver such a level of power to those who know how to harness it. It’s time to take “the quantum bull” by the horns. Our children and grandchildren will thank us.