The race for the premier class
BVB and RB Leipzig pray for Freiburg sensation in London
March 8, 2024, 7:25 a.m
In the Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig are in a snail’s race for fourth place, which guarantees qualification for the new Champions League. Maybe fifth place is enough. But that is complicated. A lot depends on SC Freiburg and the second leg at West Ham.
RB Leipzig’s exit from the premier class gave Borussia Dortmund a place in the 2025 Club World Cup. However, it could still be problematic for Dortmund, as Leipzig’s draw in Madrid also denied the Bundesliga important points in the race for fifth place in the Bundesliga next Champions League.
In the coming season, two leagues will receive an extra place in the new Champions League via the coefficient rating, in which 36 instead of the current 32 clubs will compete. With the first completed games in the round of 16 of the premier class and the first legs in the Europa and Conference League, a clearer picture is now emerging. However, no decisions have been made yet.
A look at the current points (an explanation of the calculation can be found below):
- Italy 16,571
- Germany 15,500
- England 14,625
- France 14,416
- Spain 13,437
- Czech Republic, 13,000
- Belgium 12,400
Which league has the best chance of another place?
At the moment everything looks like a neck-and-neck race between Italy, Germany and England. But France could also get involved. After the first leg victories of Rome (4-0 against Brighton), AC Milan (4-2 against Slavia Prague) and Florence (4-3 at Haifa) as well as Atalanta’s 1-1 draw at Sporting Lisbon, Italy still has four clubs Race outside the Champions League, in which Inter and Napoli fight for progress next week at Atlético Madrid and Barcelona. This gives Serie A an ideal starting position for the coming weeks. Six of the seven clubs that started are currently still in the race.
For the Bundesliga, RB’s exit is, as already mentioned above, a major setback in the fight for second place. FC Bayern was able to eliminate an Italian competitor by beating Lazio, but the remaining teams around Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg are of crucial importance. The trio must reach the quarter-finals and ideally see this as just a stopover. The early exit of Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin and the bitter exit of RB reduced the German contingent from seven to four clubs. That could still prove costly for either Dortmund or Leipzig. These two clubs are currently fighting for fifth place, which may only be enough for the Champions League.
Because right behind the Bundesliga lurks the Premier League, which has only been outside the top two leagues once in the past five years. In the 2019/2020 season alone, what was probably the best league in the world missed out on this place because Bayer Munich won the Champions League. Despite reaching the quarter-finals of the premier class, Thomas Tuchel’s team is still as far away from that as union leader Claus Weselsky is from a lifelong friendship with railway board member Martin Seiler.
Why Freiburg’s game at West Ham is so incredibly important
That’s why Leipzig and Dortmund, who should defeat Eindhoven next week, have to hope for SC Freiburg, who will also be in focus in the second leg next week after the 1-0 win against West Ham. If the Breisgauer team can create a sensation in London, they will be doing the top clubs a great service. After Newcastle United and Manchester United, which have already been eliminated, another English club would have been eliminated from Europe. Brighton will no longer win the comparison with Rome either. With Manchester City in the Champions League and Liverpool in the Europa League, the Premier League has two top favorites in the race for the respective titles. Aston Villa are also lurking in the Conference League, although after the 0-0 draw at Ajax Amsterdam they still have a bit of work to do before they reach the quarter-finals.
Outside chances can still be attributed to France, who will most likely be in the quarter-finals with three teams, and to Spain. But since La Liga still has three clubs in the Champions League, but due to Villarreal’s 4-0 defeat at Olympique Marseille, it is very likely that there will no longer be any clubs in the other competitions from April and has also moved to Europe with a total of eight teams, A lot would have to come together.
This is also due to the complicated scoring: The points for the ranking are calculated as follows. Every win by a team in European competitions gives the clubs two points, and a draw gives them one point. For games that go to penalties, the result after 120 minutes is included in the calculation. Clubs receive additional bonus points for reaching certain phases in the competitions (Champions League, Europa League and Conference League).
All points achieved by the respective clubs in a country are added up and divided by the number of participating clubs. So if a country has seven participants in Europe and the seven clubs have collected a total of 42 points, the rating for the country is 6.0.