Dhe unexpectedly high increase in industrial production in September is not the first piece of news that casts doubt on an impending serious crisis in the German economy. The stock market has recovered from its interim lows. Surveys show a less sour mood among the population. Global supply chains are working better again; freight rates in international freight transport have fallen significantly. Even if a recession remains the most likely scenario in the coming months, the end of the world is likely to happen again.
The development of the German economy this year contradicts pessimistic estimates from the spring, according to which a significant increase in the price of gas would bring the economy to the brink of collapse. Rather, those assessments have been confirmed, according to which a market economy is able to react flexibly to incentives. The fact that the industry is doing better overall than the energy-intensive companies, which are naturally particularly badly affected, is positive news in this sense. If Germany is spared a Siberian winter in the coming months, there should be enough gas available.
Decisive reduction of bureaucracy is necessary
The challenges lie further ahead. In Germany, anyone who strives for long-term energy security must examine all options for energy production without prejudice – including those that the Greens hate because of their history and identity. The economic strengthening of the country requires a determined reduction in bureaucracy and faster approval procedures, especially for infrastructure projects.
Some well-founded concerns about the future of industries are hidden behind the complaints from lobbyists, some of which are exaggerated. For a long time, politicians were able to fend off cuts in corporate taxes with reference to cheap energy. If energy remains expensive, this position will not be able to last in terms of the competitiveness of the economy.