DECRYPTION – The Banque de France estimates that GDP will evolve next year in a range between -0.5% and +0.8%.
Caught between the energy crisis and the reversal of monetary policy, the European economy is entering a period of severe turbulence. France should resist for a few more months before plunging into turmoil in turn, under the shock of soaring gas prices, then rebounding in 2024. The Banque de France thus expects a solid gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.6% this year, close to the government’s forecast (2.7%), before a tumble in 2023.
The uncertainties are such for next year that the institution preferred to advance on a range of forecasts rather than a fixed figure. “The hazards relating both to the quantities and prices of gas supply as well as to the extent of the duration of government measures to protect households and businesses”, the change in GDP in 2023 should be between -0.5% and +0.8%. “We do not rule out a recession which would be limited and temporary”
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