The contours of the unemployment insurance reform are not yet known but its potential consequences are beginning to be assessed. Friday May 17, Unédic, the organization co-led by the social partners which manages the scheme, presented to its administrators a study which attempts to identify the impact of several scenarios. According to the document, that The world has been obtained, up to almost a third of beneficiaries could be affected, in the most unfavorable scenarios, with a postponement of the date of opening of rights.
The expertise unveiled on Friday reviews options that the government has already outlined in broad terms, but without specifying how far the sliders would be pushed. The only certainty: the measures in question will result in a tightening of the conditions for paying an allowance to the unemployed and in lower expenses for the system.
One of the avenues favored today by the executive would consist of increasing the “affiliation duration” – that is to say the working time necessary to be eligible for unemployment insurance. Currently, you must have worked for six months on a ” reference period “ twenty-four months to receive compensation.
The first parameter could be modified: if it increased to seven months, 11% of beneficiaries would be penalized (with later entry into the scheme), which would ultimately generate a saving of 400 million euros per year. If it were raised to twelve months, 31% of people would be affected, while Unédic would see its bill reduced by 2.3 billion euros. Another solution, with even more powerful effects: shorten the ” reference period “ by reducing it from twenty-four to eighteen months. In this eventuality, 32% of beneficiaries would be “impacted” and the savings would reach the colossal amount of 7.5 billion euros per year.
“Bring back money”
Among the criteria likely to evolve is also the duration during which job seekers are covered: if it were set at twelve months (compared to eighteen, today, for people under 53), the scheme would save around 6 billion euros.
The study released on Friday also shows that the reform does not have the same impact depending on the sliders that are activated. An increase in the duration of affiliation particularly affects those under 25 as well as individuals registering for unemployment after a fixed-term contract or a temporary assignment. The profiles would be very different if it were decided to reduce the duration of compensation: according to Unédic, there would be more people aged at least 25 or having ended their employment contract after a conventional termination; those who receive benefits above the average would also be more numerous.
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