The restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the beginning of a major geopolitical turning point

For seven years, the rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran has placed the Middle East on the brink. The players in the region clung to the tenuous hope of seeing the two enemy powers speak up again to avoid an explosion and settle the series of crises and conflicts fueled by their rivalry. To everyone’s surprise, it was from Beijing that Riyadh and Tehran announced, on Friday March 10, the restoration of their diplomatic relations, thereby confirming China’s rise as a strategic player in the region, on American disengagement background.

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This detente, obtained after more than two years of secret talks in Iraq then in Oman, could constitute the beginning of a geopolitical turning point. The agreement, which should be finalized during an upcoming meeting between the foreign ministers of the two countries, provides for Riyadh and Tehran to reopen their embassies within two months and to reactivate the security and economic agreements that bind. Both powers have also pledged not to interfere in their internal affairs.

“The return to normal relations between Tehran and Riyadh offers great opportunities for the two countries, the region and the Muslim world”assured on Twitter the head of Iranian diplomacy, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, adding that his ministry would “launch other regional initiatives”thus reinforcing speculation on possible progress on other regional issues, including Lebanon and Syria.

The Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, present in Beijing, hailed for his part “the end of misunderstandings” and expressed confidence that the agreement contributes “to improve regional stability and security”. His Saudi counterpart, national security adviser Musaid Al-Aiban, said “hope to continue a constructive dialogue with Iran”based on “Good Neighbor Principles”.

Persistent rivalry

Co-signer of the agreement, the head of Chinese diplomacy, Wang Yi, underlined the ” wisdom “ and the “sincerity” of both countries. The reaction from Washington, eclipsed in favor of China, is more ambivalent. The American administration supported the talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran, without being associated with them. “It remains to be seen whether Iran will fulfill its obligations under the agreement. This is not a regime used to keeping its word”however, commented the White House.

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“This is one more step by the Saudis away from the Americans, when they were negotiating security guarantees with them. It deprives them of leverage over Iran”, says Joseph Bahout, director of the Issam-Fares Institute at the American University of Beirut. Tehran’s pet peeve, the United States sees its role as guarantor of regional security called into question by Riyadh, which doubts its ability and willingness to contain Iran’s expansion.

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