Will the athletes of the Paris Olympic Games (OG) all have to face the same ordeal, that of a heat weighing down the atmosphere of Ile-de-France? Although it is currently too early to answer this question, the recent past is enough to give organizers a cold sweat.
According to Météo-France data, France has experienced twenty-two heat waves since 2010 – only the years 2014 and 2021 have not suffered any – more than in the period 1947-2000. Over the last five years, the country has suffered two in 2019, two in 2020, three in 2022 and one in 2023. Some took place during the period of the Olympics, which will take place from July 26 to August 11, notably that of August 6 to 13, 2020, with a thermometer approaching 40°C in Paris, or that – very long – from July 31 to August 13, 2022.
“The Games will begin at the time of the “climate peak”, on July 25. This is therefore the time of year when heat waves are most likely to be of the highest intensity in France.summarizes Christophe Cassou, climatologist at the CNRS. But above all they take place at a time when human-caused warming, caused by the use of fossil fuels, unequivocally favors these extreme phenomena. The probability of experiencing a heatwave in 2024 is approximately four to five times greater than in 1924, at the time of the last Olympic Games in Paris. »
While this risk is becoming more and more common for major sporting events – the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 were the hottest in history – it is obviously not certain. Four months before the deadline, the movements of the atmosphere being by definition chaotic, it is impossible to say whether these Olympics will take place under oceanic influence or under high anticyclonic pressures.
Météo-France experts will have the first reliable data approximately three weeks before the start of the event, with forecasts becoming more refined day by day. A heat wave can be predicted with great certainty about eight to ten days before competitions. “Conditions conducive to heatwaves most often result from atmospheric situations that cannot be anticipated several months later”explains the French institute.
One chance in 100
While the athletes are still in full preparation, we must instead look into an analysis of the possibility of heat wave risk. Because global climate change, which has increased average Earth temperatures by around 1.2°C compared to the pre-industrial era, increases the likelihood of heat waves, as well as their intensity, according to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
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