“The same problem as Hitler”
Military economist: Putin has already strategically lost the war
April 26, 2024, 9:39 p.m
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Russia has been waging a war of aggression against Ukraine for more than two years. Despite Moscow’s current progress on the front, military economist Keupp sees the Kremlin on the losing end. In the long term, he is certain that Russia has no chance against the industrial potential of the West.
According to military economist Marcus M. Keupp, who teaches in Zurich, Russia has already strategically lost its war of aggression against Ukraine. “Putin is continuing, even though he should actually have called off the war in the fall of 2023,” Keupp told the “Cologne Rundschau“. “It then became clear that the production rate could not keep up with the wear rate.”
Russia will reach a point where it will no longer be able to perform militarily. “The logic of attrition does not depend on any worldview,” says Keupp. “It’s a question of logistics, like in the Second World War: whoever has the higher industrial potential in the long term and lasts longer wins.”
Putin has the same problem as Hitler. “He has to win in the short term. Because in the long term he has no chance against the industrial potential of the West. That is the reason why he is burning systems and people so massively at the front,” Keupp continued. Putin wants a decision before “the entire massive arms industry in the entire Western world” gets started. “The USA, South Korea, Pakistan, all of Western Europe are producing against him.”
Ukraine relies on attrition
Due to the high material losses, Russian warfare is becoming increasingly technologically poorer. “When the war started in 2022, they carried out mechanized attacks with battalion groups that had maybe 30 main battle tanks plus armored personnel carriers plus logistics. Today they are sending people forward with ancient T62 tanks without a turret and sometimes in golf carts,” the military expert noted . Russia’s operational reserve is already gone. Now older and older systems are being taken out of storage. “I would say that Russia can certainly continue the war in 2024 and 2025. But it is increasingly running into a time problem.”
On the other hand, Ukraine does not have enough artillery to effectively combat all advances, Keupp notes. So Kiev is slowly giving up ground and trying to let the Russians bleed dry. If Russia continues as before, Ukraine will have to mobilize at some point. “Let’s not forget that Ukraine has an active reserve of one million men. So it still has a lot of potential. But at the moment it is cheaper for them to rely on attrition.”
Keupp teaches at the military academy at ETH Zurich. The scientist had already expressed the view in spring 2023 that the war would be strategically lost for Russia by October 2023. “Yes, I still hold this view,” he now told the “Kölnische Rundschau”. If the West continues to supply material, then Russia “not only won’t win the war, it will lose it.”