the State facing the specter of an economy under Covid-19 long

At the top of the Eiffel Tower, July 16, 2021.

“The forever virus”. The “endless virus”: this is how Foreign Affairs renamed the Covid-19. [Il] will probably continue to make round trips around the globe in the years to come, rather than disappear ”, argue the authors of the article published in the prestigious American journal, asking the question that the authorities are avoiding for the moment to formulate publicly. “The virus is here to stay, the question is how do we make sure we are too?” “

Faced with the Delta variant which is sweeping over Europe, economists, who, in recent months, were still trying to assess the recovery allowed by vaccination, put down the pencils. And they are beginning to wonder if this post-Covid-19, this “Covida” announced as a resurrection of the “Roaring Twenties”, is indeed a realistic outcome in the face of a virus of disconcerting inventiveness. “The Delta variant constitutes a growing source of uncertainty”, admitted Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Thursday, July 22, while the financial markets are also beginning to worry about the specter of an economy under “Covid-19 long”.

Read also: The Delta variant mortgages the economic recovery expected by the executive

“We feel that there is a little music that sets in, which says that we are never going to get out of it”, admits an economist, confessing a real “Inability to foresee”. Like scientists, fewer economists believe in the previously preferred scenario of a one-off shock followed by a return to the world before. “We went from an epidemic to an endemic, summarizes Ludovic Subran, chief economist of Allianz. It does less jolts on growth, but it has other effects, on inequalities, savings, businesses, households… Because it lasts. “

Slow movement of “de-globalization”

Of course, mass is not said. It is not certain, for example, that the Delta variant causes a surge in hospitalizations that forces France to close – this is not the case in the United Kingdom. Most economists remain relatively optimistic about France, where companies have held up well and where, due to support policies, few bankruptcies are expected. The confinements are each time less expensive, they recall in unison, and the objective of the authorities is precisely to avoid a new one.

There is also little doubt that the state will continue to support the country, or at least the affected sectors, in an election year. “There is no reason that the whatever the cost does not apply to the fourth wave, continues Ludovic Subran. Why would she escape magic money? In any case, this is what economic players are anticipating. “

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