The Paris Stock Exchange had an erratic session on Monday but managed to gain a few points at the close, although weighted by one of its heavyweights, TotalEnergiesthe sharpest drop in the Cac 40 (-2.3%) in the wake of a sharp decline in oil prices.
the Bedroom 40 ends up 0.25%, at 6,569.95 points, in a meager trading volume of 1.77 billion euros, traditional for a holiday.
In New York, the indices are also moving not far from their closing levels on Friday (the Dow Jones yields 0.08% and the S&P500 0.15%, the Nasdaq Composite takes 0.09%). ExxonMobil loses 2.8% and Chevron 2.5%.
Bad numbers in China
Two explanations for the sharp drop in oil prices on Monday, the barrel of Brent falling below 94 dollars. In China, the statistics of the day were indeed disappointing, suggesting a weakening in demand for rough from the world’s largest consumer. Industrial production rose only 3.8% last month, against an expected 4.6% rise, while retail sales rose 2.7%, below the 5% expected. China’s central bank cut its one-year rates by 10 basis points to 2.75%. This weekend, the giant Saudi Aramco, for its part, declared on the sidelines of the publication of its accounts, that it was ready to increase its production to its maximum capacity of 12 million barrels per day if the Saudi government made the request.
A lot of caution, too, in the United States, ahead of a week that will be marked by the publication of quarterly reports by big names in the distribution sector: walmart (which already issued a warning at the end of July), Target and Home Depot. Also to follow, on Wednesday, are retail sales for the month of July.
The Fed Minutes Wednesday
It is also Wednesday that we will learn, in the early evening, of the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting of the American Federal Reserve. Despite a lull observed on the inflation front, consumer, producer and import prices came in below consensus expectations in July, and therefore below those of the previous month, raising hopes that the peak has now been reached, it is “ too early to open the champagne “, relativizes Ipek Ozkardeskaya, at Swissquote Bank, “ members of the Fed immediately warned that inflation in the United States remains at a particularly high level, which requires continued intervention from a monetary policy point of view until levels return to the targets set “.
The CME tool based on futures contracts on Fed-funds assesses the probability of a 50 basis point rise in key rates in September at 54.5% and that of a 75 basis point increase at 45.5%.