Tribune. The American elections give rise to countless disaster scenarios.
Scenario 1: As Michael Gerson, columnist at the Washington post, “It is increasingly evident that the nightmarish prospect of US policy – of a federal government under unified Republican control and in the hands of a re-elected Donald Trump in 2024 – became the most likely outcome “.
Gerson may well be right. If Donald Trump does show up – and judging from his latest rants, it looks like he really intends to – he will certainly lose the popular vote. In 2020, it was Biden who won the popular vote by more than seven million votes. In America alone, the president is not elected by popular suffrage, but by an archaic system called the electoral college: voters actually elect 538 electorate voters who will elect the president. The candidate who obtains 270 or more votes wins.
“Trick” of the electoral college
In view of the laws recently enacted in some key states, the Trumpists may be able to bypass the popular vote, or even that of the large voters. In seventeen Republican-dominated states, a whole series of laws have been passed which penalize minorities at the time of voting (and we know that minorities tend to vote for Democrats) and which give legislators and state officials Republicans more power to decide who will ultimately be the grand voters. In other words: Republicans may lose the popular vote but “rig” the electoral college and offer Trump a second term.
Scenario 2: Democrat elected to prosecute Trump in Senate in second impeachment trial [qui a eu lieu en février et à l’issue duquel il a été acquitté] had this famous word: “I’m not afraid Donald Trump will show up again. I’m afraid he’ll show up again and lose. “ Implied: that this former president, so obsessed with himself, is again unable to accept his place of “loser”, that he starts shouting again from the rooftops (as he has done since his defeat against Biden in 2020) that we have ” Fly “ the election and further erodes confidence in the democratic model.
Behind these two catastrophic scenarios is the idea that the American democratic model survived Trump’s first term as president and his “big lie” of a rigged election; that it still works, but that this model is doomed to failure if the “spoiled-faded old-child” decides to show up in 2024 – whether he wins or loses.
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