The question is already settled: Wagner no longer exists.
Admittedly, it is still a very powerful “brand”, which will not necessarily disappear, and thousands of fighters still identify with this crest, but the militia – as it existed in recent years – has ceased to exist. with the mutiny, and still more with the death of its leader.
Heavy weapons were immediately handed over to the army, and then partly transferred to the national guard. This is led by Putin’s former bodyguard, and the message is pretty clear. There are no more Wagner combat units. The Kremlin had given its soldiers three options: to be demobilized and return home; be drafted into the army; exile in Belarus.
Barring new upheavals, the authorities will no longer allow any paramilitary group to acquire as much autonomy.
The question is a little more complicated when it comes to Prigojine’s other activities, and this is all the more important since the real strength of this group was its complementarity. Wagner in the Central African Republic is more than men with Kalashnikovs – it’s political consultants, controlled media, mining, internet trolls… And each activity reinforces the other.
There have been a lot of movements in the last two months, and almost everything has been liquidated – even completely dissolved, like certain media outlets in Prigojine which have been either closed or taken over by loyal figures. This is undoubtedly done at the cost of a loss of efficiency, but for the Kremlin, it was not the priority.
The most delicate concerns Africa: this is where the experience of Wagner’s men, of their networks, counts the most. On this ground, I am not able to say how things are or will be reorganized. But Prigojine tried to preserve this part of his business until the end, instead of being wisely forgotten. Remember: he was filmed in Mali, three days before his death. According to some sources, especially in the washington post today, it could even have precipitated this probable assassination.