Since this Friday, the notches of the Paris Stock Exchange are dyed. They will remain so until January 2, when the markets reopen. The opportunity to draw up a quick assessment of the last 12 months on the financial markets.
For investors, 2022 will have been the year of all dangers. And if a few values managed to pull their pin out of the game, most titles ended the year in the red. Overall, the CAC40 fell by -9% over the last 12 months.
Anne difficult
The markets had however started the year with a bang. Driven by the reopening of borders and the resumption of global economic activity after the pandemic, the CAC40 had reached 7384 dots last January. Never seen.
However, the market euphoria was short-lived. Inflation, which was supposed to be only temporary, according to the institutions, persisted throughout the year. At the end of November, soaring prices thus reached +6.2% over 1 year in France.
It was precisely to curb high inflation that the European Central Bank raised its key rates by 250 dots baseline over the past 6 months. This rise, the fastest since the creation of the euro, has put the markets under pressure.
Especially since other headwinds blew on the stock markets in 2022. Starting with the stalemate in the Ukrainian conflict and the resulting energy crisis. Between the months of July 2021 and 2022, the price of gas thus increased by more than +150%.
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The zero-covid policy of the Chinese authorities also weighed on prices. So last September, the pessimism of investors reached its peak, with a record number of short positions, indicates Nicolas Chron, stratgist and stock market analyst.
Result: 29 of the 40 companies that make up the CAC40 index end in the red. At the back of the pack, the Teleperformance group lost -41% of its stock market valuation over 1 year after being suspected of violating labor rights.
After an excellent year in 2021, the bioanalysis specialist, Eurofins Scientific, is also going through a difficult period. The share price falls by -38.77% over 1 year. At issue: the drop in the number of Covid tests, which is weighing on the group’s profits.
Another action down: Michelin. The tire giant ended the year with a drop in -25.39%, hampered, in particular, by the exit from the Russian market and health restrictions in China. Over the first 9 months of 2022, tire volumes sold fell by -2.4%.
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The 10 stocks that have fallen the most in 2022
- Teleperformance (-41.57% 223.50 euros)
- Eurofins Scientific (-38.77% 66.56 euros)
- Dassault Systems (-36.31% 33.56 euros)
- Kering (-30.02% 480.75 euros)
- Capgemini (-26.45% 156.30 euros)
- Vivendi (-25.74% 8.87 euros)
- Michelin (-25.39% 26.76 euros)
- Worldline (-25.34% 36.86 euros)
- Great (-24.92% 76.06 euros)
- Alstom (-24.48% 23.08 euros)
Values over the last 12 months from December 27, 2022.
However, traders escaped the worst. Because after having reached its lowest level of the year, on September 29, 5676 dotsthe CAC40 resumed +21%. Following this rally, the flagship index of the Parisian market is no more than 10% from its all-time high.
Some stocks even afford the luxury of ending the year in the green. This is particularly the case for the Thales share, which soared +60% over 1 year. The armaments sector has indeed benefited from the geopolitical context following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Supported by soaring energy prices, TotalEnergies also posted a fine performance (+34%) in 2022. Patrick Pouyann’s company has announced $6.6 billion net profit in the third quarter of 2022, up by +43% compared to the same period in 2021.
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The 10 stocks that have made the most progress in 2022
- Thales (+60.18% 119.35 euros)
- TotalEnergies (+34% 60 euros)
- Saffron (+11.49% 118.96 euros)
- Sanofi (+8.22% 91.12 euros)
- Engie (+5.67% 13.59 euros)
- Renault (+5.53% 31.41 euros)
- vinci (+4.79% 94.10 euros)
- AXA (+2.39% 26.51 euros)
- Publicis Group (+1.59% 59.94 euros)
- Crossroads (+1.47% 15.87 euros)
Values over the last 12 months from December 27, 2022.
Will the markets perform better in 2023?
Hard to say. Inflation is starting to slow down in the United States. She went from +9% over 1 year last June +7.1% in November. If this movement is confirmed over the next few months, central banks could slow down or even stop their rate hikes. This would benefit the stock market.
However, growth prospects remain subdued. The Banque de France, for example, anticipates a variation in French GDP of almost zero (+0.1%) in 2023. For its part, the IMF estimates that global growth could fall below the 2% for the first time since 2009. In this context, caution remains in order.
However, a few sectors could stand out. Tech stocks have been slaughtered over the past few months. If the peak of inflation is behind us, the price of these stocks could recover in 2023, estimates Antoine Fraysse-Soulier, head of market analysis at eToro. As for the luxury and tourism sectors, they could benefit from the reopening of Chinese borders.
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