Updated
The three candidates at the top of the pack gain 0.5 points and confirm their lead: Macron is at 28% intentions in the first round, Le Pen at 21.5% and Mélenchon closes the podium with 15% according to our Ifop-Fiducial survey for Paris Match-LCI-Sud Radio.
The podium comes off and leaves Eric Zemmour and Valérie Pécresse on the sidelines in our Ifop-Fiducial survey. Outgoing President Emmanuel Macron continues, at cruising speed, with 28% (+0.5) of voting intentions in the first round and 82% with regard to the safety of the choice of his voters. For her part, the head of the RN continues to gather intentions to consolidate her place as runner-up. With 21.5% (+0.5) she achieved a better score than in 2017 when she had collected 21.3% of the votes in the first round. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, boss of the Union Populaire does not stop climbing either and closes the ban at 15%.
Is this breakthrough by Marine Le Pen and the far-left candidate highlighting a useful vote that is beginning to emerge? On closer inspection, on the left, the ecologist Yannick Jadot, down this Wednesday to 4.5% (-0.5) loses 4 points among the voters of Benoît Hamon in 2017 (17%) and 2 points among those of Mélenchon (8%). Among EELV activists, only 49% (-4) say they vote for him. Socialist Anne Hidalgo also loses 4 points among Benoît Hamon voters in 2017 (15%). For his part, Fabien Roussel regains strength, 4% (+0.5) and confirms that his electorate does not want the useful vote with the Popular Union.
Marine Le Pen on an upward slope in the least favored categories
On the right, it’s the same dynamic. The candidate “Reconquest! Éric Zemmour does not know of the “Trocadero effect”: he loses 0.5 points to reach 10.5% of voting intentions in the first round. Only 15% (-2) of François Fillon’s voters in 2017 say they vote for him and he loses 11 points among the “unemployed” (9%). People declaring less than 970 euros per month are also dropping it little by little: 9% (-3). Marine Le Pen, for her part, seems to be on an upward slope in her core target: +4 for the same category, i.e. 32%; +4 among those “without diplomas” i.e. 26%; +5 among “public sector employees”, i.e. 28% and 36% (+2) for “workers”. The LRs continue to stagnate: Valérie Pécresse is at 10.5% of voting intentions in the first round but can be consoled to see an increase in François Fillon’s voters (+3; 49%), finally bringing it closer to 50%.