Small rise on Wall Street, slack markets in Asia for an almost stable opening in Europe, even slightly up, the major indices lack direction, in the middle of the summer, while waiting to perceive clearer signs of slowing inflation. ” And it will take timeestimated this morning Ipek Ozkardeskaya, at Swissquote Bank, because it will take a series of encouraging data to qualify the central banks’ fight against soaring prices as a success. »
Yesterday, the sharp deterioration of the Empire State index of the New York Fed (-31.3 points in August, against +5 expected and +11.1 in July) revived the hopes that the Federal Reserve is showing more lenient in its next monetary policy decision next month. Only the most optimistic can believe in such a scenario. Because inflation has indeed entered the heart of households and businesses in the United States. At 8.5%, it remains close to its peak of 9.1% in June. We will certainly have further proof of this this afternoon with the publication of the quarterly accounts of walmart and of Home Depot.
Loss of purchasing power
If the world’s number one retailer issued a warning on its annual forecasts at the end of July, weighed down by the loss of consumer purchasing power, it should confirm on Tuesday that inflation continues to push up costs and that retailers and suppliers negotiate fiercely to set adequate price levels that can preserve their margins without scaring away customers, at the risk of leaving the shelves empty in the event of failure.
As for food, which is central to household consumption, prices soared again by nearly 11% in July in the United States over one year. A sharp increase, of course, but which masks, for example, the jump of 38% for eggs, more than 20% for coffee, 18% for meat or even 13% for… peanut butter. What create incomprehension, even anger, of consumers. According to a recent study conducted by Deloitte, 56% of Americans believe that companies raise their prices more than necessary to increase their profits. President Joe Biden’s administration has also blamed meat and energy producers for their pricing policy.
Some stats on the program
To be continued, therefore, in-depth comments from Walmart, before those, also scheduled this week, from Target. He too had warned on his margins last month.
On the statistical front, a few statistics are on the agenda for the day: building permits and housing starts, but also July’s industrial production in the United States, the ZEW index of German investors’ economic sentiment in August. The consensus expects a further deterioration, to -60 points, against -53.8 in July.
On the business side, it’s dead calm in France. We will nevertheless follow the possible impact of the publication of excellent quarterly figures from the mining group. BHP Billitonwhich posted the biggest profit in its history at the end of June and will pay a record dividend.