UPension reform is a political choice, which entails economic and social trade-offs: there are gains sought or hoped for by the promoters of the reform and economic, social and political costs that must be weighed up. However, in support of what is undoubtedly one of the most important reforms of the five-year term, the government has not provided parliamentarians with the information essential to a precise analysis of the main issues: its direct effects, its consequences on gender inequalities, unemployment, growth, employment or even the precariousness of seniors.
The fact is all the more surprising since the National Assembly, which organizes public policy evaluation days every year, has taken the turn of modern deliberation, enlightened by the state of available knowledge. Contrary to these developments, if the document called “Impact study” which serves as an appendix to the reform reports a certain number of relatively informative statistical elements on various aspects of the reform, it is much more like a press file than an analysis document. The figures presented, or on the contrary absent, are systematically selected not to shed light on the reform, but to advertise it.
To give just one example, we do read at the turn of a page that women will on average be more affected than men by the shift in the retirement age, but nowhere in the document is indicated the details of the effects according to the profiles. Also, everyone repeats that women of the 1972 generation will be affected by a nine-month lag ” on average “a duration that includes people not concerned (because they are already in a situation of invalidity or are already leaving at age 67), but nowhere can we read that approximately one woman in four will be affected by a two-year lag for a almost unchanged pension, nor knowing how many will suffer a loss of the 10% premium as a result of the reform.
However, the statistical apparatus and economic and social research have probably never been so well equipped to shed light on a reform, and for good reason: even if it is not completely identical, the 2010 reform which brought the age minimum retirement age of 60 to 62 has allowed many observations and measurements. The work of the Pensions Orientation Council (COR), and in particular the meeting of the January 27, 2022 devoted to the effects to be expected from a two-year shift in the legal age, summarize the essential of this information. But these are not included in the file of the bill…
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