Economists from the National Institute of Statistics consider a contraction in Italian activity in the first quarter very likely.
The Russian tanks had not yet arrived in Ukraine when already, in January, the explosion of energy prices weighed heavily on industrial activity (-3.4% compared to December), bringing it back below February 2020 level. This led the National Institute of Statistics to drastically revise, by 0.7 points, its GDP growth forecast for this year, to 4%, after the 6.6% rebound in 2021, which we hoped would have a lasting dynamic. And again, this forecast does not include the effects of the sanctions against Moscow. ING economists now consider a contraction in Italian activity in the first quarter very likely. A halt in mid-flight.
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In question, the rise in the price of gas and oil which eats all the margins, and well beyond. According to Confindustria, the Italian employers, the energy bill for industry will increase from 8 billion euros in 2019 to 51 billion this year. For the most energy-intensive sectors, steel,…