Lifting of the ban on interregional travel, then postponed curfew to 9 p.m., reopening of terraces, shops deemed non-essential, cinemas, etc. : In May, the gradual easing of restrictions linked to the Covid-19 pandemic kicked off. Is this enough to keep the weather forecast for Livret A running, which has never stopped collecting billions since the start of the health crisis? A little bit.
But only a little bit. Indeed, 1.81 billion euros were collected in May on the Livret A and 510 million on the Sustainable and Solidarity Development Booklet (LDDS), its little brother, which meets very similar rules. Or a total of 2.32 billion for the two books, according to data released on May 22 by the Caisse des Dépôts.
This monthly amount is the lowest of the year 2021 – more than 7 billion had been collected in January and almost 3 billion each time in February, March and April.
It is also the fourth worst month since the start of the first confinement. These are the net inflows figures: deposits minus withdrawals.
When 2021 rhymes with 21 billion
However, this result is still very high. Especially since it brings the net inflows recorded by the two savings accounts since the beginning of 2021 to almost 21 billion euros, and to … more than 50 billion the sum collected since the beginning of March 2020.
Outstanding amounts (total sums invested) as of May 31 amounted to 469 billion euros. “This is the second highest collection for a month of May since 2009, cumulatively as for the Livret A alone or the LDDS alone”, underlines for its part the Caisse des Dépôts.
It must be said that the month of May is not traditionally the best for these booklets, which tend to suffer from expenses related to bridges and the preparation of the summer vacation, or even, before 2019, to the payment of the second third. provisional income tax.
But the provisional thirds disappeared with the taxation at source, the 1er and May 8, which fell on Saturdays this year, did not give rise to long weekends and uncertainties about the health situation in France and in other countries greatly delayed planning for the summer. So many factors limiting traditional spending in May and further promoting so-called “forced” savings.
“The deconfinement which began in May being progressive, the reflux of the savings suffered will be just as much”, predicted at the end of May the economist Philippe Crevel, founder of the Cercle de l’épargne, in his monthly note on the subject.
And after ? “With the reopening of bars and restaurants and the summer holidays, the Livret A should register a fairly logical decline in the coming months, after an exceptional first part of the year”, he now judges. “However, the French will not suddenly empty their Covid pot. Given the uncertainties that remain, the precautionary savings stock should be maintained at a high level for many months to come. “
What rate for the Livret A on August 1?
If for observers of savings and Livret A, eyes have for months been focused on collection levels, they are now also turning more and more to those of inflation, which is discreetly returning to France.
This inflation indeed influences the real return on passbooks, and it is, moreover, taken into account in the calculation of its rate of remuneration, fixed since February 1, 2020 at 0.50%, its historic low and its level. “Floor” (under which he cannot descend).
Will this return to inflation be accompanied by an increase in the Livret A rate on August 1, 2021 (the rate is recalculated at least twice a year, with application of the new rate, if necessary, on February and August 1)? This is not the most likely option, even if, to be clear about it, it will be necessary to wait until July for the government of the Banque de France to make its calculations and send its recommendations to the government, and for Bercy to decide.
Because if inflation is still taken into account in setting the Livret A rate, it weighs less than before, due to the latest change in the calculation formula decided by the government and applied for the first time in early 2020.
Short-term interbank rates (the rate ” € STR Now) weigh in fact now necessarily half in the calculation. However, these remain negative. Unless there is a strong surge in inflation in June, the rise in prices as taken into account in the Livret A rate formula (the average of the last six months of variation, year-on-year, of the consumer price index excluding tobacco) would not be sufficient to counteract the effect of interbank rates and raise the Livret A rate above 0.5%.