“There is simply a lack of craftsmen”
Building sector destroys hopes of 2045 climate target
21.06.2024, 08:46
The federal government is aiming for climate neutrality by 2045. Under current conditions, this is impossible in the building sector, experts say. The industry is also plagued by an enormous investment backlog and a massive shortage of skilled workers.
According to experts, the German government’s goal of climate neutrality by 2045 cannot be achieved in the building sector under current conditions. There are massive capacity bottlenecks in energy-related renovations due to the “bottleneck” of the shortage of skilled workers, according to a study by the Munich-based consulting firm S&B Strategy. “There is simply a lack of the necessary tradesmen to carry out the renovation work on a large scale. The capacity bottlenecks in the trades sector are therefore threatening Germany’s entire climate strategy,” said Fabio Meggle, manager and co-author of the study.
Germany is pursuing a two-pronged approach and – unlike some other countries – is not only focusing on electrifying heat generation through heat pumps but also on reducing energy requirements through insulating building envelopes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, when it comes to roofs and facades in particular, we are “miles away from a scenario that will achieve the renovation targets by 2045,” said Christoph Blepp, Managing Partner of the strategy consultancy.
Experts estimate that the total investment required to achieve the goal of climate neutrality in the building sector by 2045 will be around 1.2 trillion euros – in the four most important trades: heating, windows, roofs and facades. In the residential sector alone, there are 15.7 million buildings across Germany that have not been renovated or have only been partially renovated since they were built. In addition, there are around 1.7 million non-residential buildings that were built before 2001 and are therefore potentially in need of renovation.
Suppliers are working feverishly on solutions
It is hardly possible to recruit more staff in the short term – on the contrary: in the coming years, many tradesmen will retire and there is a lack of sufficient young talent. The key lever for making progress is a significant increase in productivity, for example through greater pre-assembly, finished modules, new business models and more efficient processes. Many construction suppliers are working on solutions that significantly reduce the time required to install heating systems or facades, says Meggle. A streamlining of standards and regulations is also necessary.
S&B Strategy specializes in advising entrepreneurs and investors in the areas of buildings and infrastructure. The study used data from the Federal Environment Agency, the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development, the German Energy Agency and data collected by S&B.