Grandstand. The crisis in Ukraine is a warning shot for Europe which should lead it to accelerate its energy transition, for reasons that are as much geopolitical as climatic. In less than a week, the earthquake of war has enabled unprecedented strategic coordination at European level and removed several political barriers, both on military issues (supply of lethal weapons to Kiev) and strategic issues (economic retaliation measures to Moscow).
But the sanctions spare for the moment certain state companies, such as Gazprom, cruelly reminding in passing that Russia supplies nearly 40% of the gas, more than 25% of the oil and nearly 50% of the coal imported by the Union European (EU). Russia is the EU’s largest supplier of fossil fuels, and European dependence has only increased in recent years. Fossil fuel imports from Russia represent a bill of between 60 and 100 billion euros per year for the EU (probably double in 2021, given current prices), an amount equivalent to the entire budget Kremlin’s military (around 60 billion euros).
Faced with this threat, the EU is not helpless. It already has a political project, the Green Pact, and a useful compass to respond to the current crisis: the objective of climate neutrality by 2050. Enshrined in European climate law, this objective is accompanied by a long-term strategy to decarbonize the energy system, which provides for a 30% reduction in fossil gas consumption in Europe by 2030, approximately the level of Russian imports, and a division by six in 2050.
Shield measures
To speed up the implementation of these objectives in the light of the current crisis, the European Commission is preparing new proposals to encourage Member States to reduce their dependence on imported gas, and on fossil fuels in general. First in the short term, for geopolitical reasons, and in the longer term, for climatic reasons, while protecting households from too sudden a rise in prices. Because the current crisis is twofold: the geopolitical instability which threatens supplies is added to the explosion of energy prices in recent months, particularly gas and oil.
This price increase has already led several States (France in the lead) to take strong measures to cushion much of the cost of these price increases for consumers, acting as a shield against volatility. The need to act in the face of the social emergency is not subject to debate, but requires vigilance in the implementation of effective and well-targeted measures for the most modest and most exposed households. Poorly targeted, such measures will be all the more costly since oil and gas prices will not spontaneously come down after the winter. According to the analyzes of the European Commission, we must be prepared for one or more more difficult years, with structurally higher prices.
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