This is how dramatically the traffic light parties have crashed in the state elections since the federal election

The results from Saxony and Thuringia fit into the disastrous traffic light picture: Since the last federal election, the SPD, Greens and FDP have almost always suffered losses in state elections. The debacle rate is 80 percent.

Three years later, the numbers are unimaginable: 51.8 percent voted for one of the traffic light parties in the 2021 federal election. The SPD, Greens and FDP have now almost halved their approval ratings. According to most polling institutes, the governing coalition only receives around 30 percent of the vote in total. The situation is particularly dramatic in view of the recent state elections in the east of the Federal Republic.

In Thuringia, only one traffic light party, the SPD (6.1 percent), made it into the state parliament, while the Greens (3.2 percent) and the FDP (1.1 percent) were knocked out of the Erfurt parliament. In Saxony, the SPD (7.3 percent) and the Greens (5.1 percent) narrowly entered the state parliament, while the FDP could not even think about it, given that it received 0.9 percent of the vote. The FDP lost 3.9 percentage points in Thuringia (2019: 5.0 percent), and 3.6 percentage points in Saxony (2019: 4.5 percent). The Greens lost 2.0 percentage points in Thuringia (2019: 5.2 percent) and 3.5 percentage points in Saxony (2019: 8.6 percent). The Chancellor’s party, the SPD, suffered the smallest losses: 2.2 percentage points loss in Thuringia (2019: 8.3 percent), minus 0.4 percentage points in Saxony (2019: 7.7 percent).

Saxony and Thuringia have certainly never been the home states of the traffic light parties, but the losses are part of an unprecedented series of defeats. Since winning the parliamentary majority in the 2021 federal election, new state parliaments have been elected in 10 of the 16 federal states. The only really good result was the Saarland election in March 2022. The SPD gained 13.9 percentage points at the time and celebrated a landslide victory with 43.5 percent. Since then, the Social Democrats, led by Prime Minister Anke Rehlinger, have been able to govern Germany’s smallest state by themselves. The Greens (4.9 percent) and the FDP (4.5 percent) narrowly failed to return to the state parliament, but at least made some gains. Two and a half years later, it is clear: the election in Saarland was the only one since the federal election in which all traffic light parties made gains.

FDP defeats since the second state election

Six weeks later, in May 2022, the SPD suffered a debacle in Schleswig-Holstein, losing double digits and slipping to 16 percent. The FDP also almost halved from 11.5 to 6.4 percent. Only the Greens gained 5.4 percentage points and have since become the second strongest force in the state parliament behind the CDU. In the 2022 elections, the Greens were ultimately able to gain everywhere: In North Rhine-Westphalia, the party achieved its historically best result (18.2 percent) with a solid increase. In Lower Saxony, the Greens also achieved a clear double-digit result (14.5 percent).

The FDP could only dream of such results in 2022. In NRW, despite significant losses, it was still enough to return to the state parliament (5.9 percent), but the second state election since participating in the federal government should already be a harbinger for the Free Democrats. In Lower Saxony, the Liberals slipped out of a state parliament for the first time since the federal election (4.7 percent). The further elections after the Saarland victory were also sobering for the SPD: in the former home state of NRW, only 26.7 percent voted for the Social Democrats, in Lower Saxony, despite losses, it was still enough to defend the majority.

Only losses – except in Bremen

The election results of the traffic light parties have been almost consistently poor since 2023. In February last year, the trio lost unanimously in the repeat election to the Berlin House of Representatives. The SPD had to hand over the keys to the Red City Hall to the CDU, the Greens were at least able to almost maintain their result, and the FDP was thrown out of parliament.

In the Bremen state election in May 2023, the Greens lost significantly, and after slight losses, the FDP only narrowly managed to enter the Hanseatic city’s parliament. The election was successful for the SPD, which overtook the CDU and became the strongest force. The increase of 4.9 percentage points was the last time that one of the traffic light parties was able to improve its result in a state election. After that, there was only a hail of losses, electoral debacles one after the other. In October 2023, the trio lost between 2.5 and 5.0 percentage points in Hesse. In Bavaria, the losses were less severe at the same time, but particularly painful for the FDP. There, too, the Liberals lost their state parliament seats.

Traffic light fiasco in 80 percent of state elections

In combination with the recent elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the SPD has suffered losses in eight of the ten state elections since the last federal election. In Berlin, the SPD even lost the Red City Hall, but in Saarland and Bremen the party was able to regain its status as the strongest force. The Greens suffered losses in seven cases. The FDP only had a micro-success in Saarland. In Lower Saxony, Berlin, Bavaria and Thuringia the party was thrown out of the state parliament. In total, the SPD, Greens and FDP have suffered losses in 24 of 30 cases since the federal election, which corresponds to a rate of 80 percent.

For the largest opposition parties in the Bundestag, however, things have recently been looking up in the federal states. After double-digit losses in Saarland (-12.2 percentage points), the Union suffered only one bitter defeat when it lost the Lower Saxony election (-7.6 percentage points). Otherwise, the CDU and CSU in Bavaria have improved their state election results or only lost single-digit percentages of votes. The AfD’s gains and losses, on the other hand, are more like a rollercoaster. Everything from a 5.4 percentage point loss in Berlin to a 9.4 percentage point gain in Thuringia was there, including the party not being registered in Bremen.

“GroKo” also lost state elections

A look at recent history also shows that electoral defeats at the state level are not uncommon for the governing parties at the federal level. During the Bundestag legislative period from 2017 to 2021, the Union suffered losses at the state level in 10 out of 13 elections. The SPD, as the junior partner in the grand coalition at the time, even lost in 11 out of 13 elections. In total, the Union and SPD also lost at the state level in 80 percent of cases during their last joint term in government.

In the previous legislative period from 2013 to 2017, however, things looked better for the CDU. In 13 elections during the term of office of the then federal government, the CDU suffered “only” 7 defeats at the state level, while the SPD lost in 10 cases. In total, there were losses in “only” 65 percent of state elections during this period.

The good news for the current traffic light government: Unless the government falls apart sooner, the only things the alliance has left to do before the next federal election in September 2025 are the state elections in Brandenburg on September 22 and in Hamburg on March 2.

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