"This summer, it's over": the reassuring forecasts of an epidemiologist on the Covid-19 crisis: Femme Actuelle The MAG

According to health authorities, the indicators of the Covid-19 epidemic, the number of daily infections of which seem to have stabilized. Coronavirus variants, however, continue to spread globally. The scientific community and the French government therefore call for no slackening of efforts and for the restriction measures to be maintained.

Covid-19: "We never completely got out of the second wave "

"It would be totally unreasonable to slacken our efforts and claim victory. Hospital pressure (…) remains very strong, in particular in intensive care units. (…) The situation remains so fragile that nothing can tip it ", underlined Gabriel Attal, the government spokesperson, on February 17. Comments confirmed by Olivier Véran. "The time has not yet come to relax our efforts, even less to relax our collective vigilance. (…) We have never completely emerged from the second wave", said the Minister of Health during his weekly conference this Thursday, February 18.

According to the latest models from Inserm, the English variant could soon cause up to 25,000 infections per week. Asked by The Dispatch, Martin Blachier, epidemiologist and public health doctor considered to be "skeptical" in front of these estimates. "I do not believe it. If we were based on their early predictions, it should already increase. I also think that there are too many approximations in their model, there are too many assumptions that are wrong. If there is a comeback, it's because people are slacking off but at the moment they don't seem to be doing it ", he explained.

Is the health crisis soon over?

During his interview, Dr Martin Blachier was also optimistic about the end of the health crisis. According to the epidemiologist, "once the population has achieved immunization with the vaccine, Sars-CoV-2 will no longer be a problem"He added, however, that the virus will still be present for the long term."However, when 80% of people are vaccinated, Sars-CoV-2 will no longer be a problem. The Covid crisis will be over this summer in my opinion but the Sars-CoV-2 will still be there. The Covid will look like the flu like some winters, but it will no longer be a wave that will stop society. This summer it will be over", he said.

On the air BFMTV, Yves Buisson, epidemiologist and president of the Covid-19 group at the National Academy of Medicine, also indicated that the variants will certainly "completely replace, completely eliminate the classic, traditional variant that was previously circulating ". But the specialist was reassuring by specifying "that it is not said that this dominance will be accompanied by an epidemic resurgence (…) everything depends on the behavior of the French. For now, this behavior has helped contain the epidemic. "

Read also :

⋙ Covid-19: how long does the immune response last after a first infection?

⋙ "Zero Covid": should this strategy be applied in France or "live with the virus"?

⋙ Testimony: she won her fight against the Covid