There are certain times that stockholders have now fully integrated, for their potential impact on the stock market: 8 p.m. for the Fed’s monetary policy decisions, 1:45 p.m. for its European counterpart, 2:30 p.m. for the monthly figures of the American labor market (this will be this Friday for those in August), 4 p.m. for the keynote speech by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole symposium…
With the surge in inflation since the beginning of this year, which central banks have taken as their main target at the risk of creating “pain” within companies and among households, they are discovering another which, in the past , was hardly circled in red pen on the diary, that of 2 p.m. It is today that they may be able to verify it, with the publication of inflation for August in Germany, the largest economy in the euro zone. It accounts for more than 30% of the region’s gross domestic product.
Further surge expected in August
While the latest consumer price figures have given the impression of wanting to stabilize across the Atlantic, down slightly over one year for the month of July, this is not the case across the Rhine, where inflation peaked at 8.5%, again over one year and in harmonized European data, beyond the 8.2% of June and above all the 8.1% which were anticipated by analysts. No respite is expected today, since the consensus expects a surge to 8.8% for the month that is ending. The massive purchases of natural gas by the country since the beginning of August in order to fill the tanks in anticipation of the winter, should not have helped matters.
In question, of course, the surge in energy prices (+35.7% in July according to Destatis) but also in food (+14.8%), which weigh on the growth and profitability of companies as well as household consumption. Last month, activity in Germany’s services sector fell into contraction for the first time in six months as rising prices and gas supply fears nipped in the bud the recovery that followed the improvement of the health crisis.
No rebound on Wall Street
An even worse figure on Tuesday would certainly fuel speculation about a sharp 75 basis point hike in key rates at the September 8 meeting of the European Central Bank. At the risk of precipitating an entry into recession in the euro zone.
Half an hour before the opening, the futures contracts suggest an almost stable opening of the Bedroom 40Wall Street having failed to rebound yesterday despite some midday vagueness (-0.57% for the Dow Jones-1.02% for the Nasdaq Composite) after its bright red session on Friday, weighed down by Jerome Powell’s “direct” speech in Jackson Hole.
Apart from German inflation, August consumer confidence is expected this afternoon in the United States, according to the Conference Board, as well as two real estate indicators of house prices for the month of June, the FHFA and CaseShiller indices. .
Few things to report on the business side. We will still monitor Sanofi. The US health authority FDA has granted priority review to a treatment for hemophilia A.