“I think it’s possible that Twitter will exceed one billion monthly users within the next twelve to eighteen months.” This statement Elon Musk’s bet was dated November 27, 2022, shortly after his acquisition of the social network. Twenty months later, the multi-billionaire has lost his bet.
Certainly, the platform, renamed “X” on July 23, 2023, has gained monthly active users: there are now 570 million, according to the figures released in July by the companyan increase of 6% compared to last year. But the number of people who connect each day, it, stagnates, at the level of 250 million – the same value as when buying back of the platform.
While Elon Musk’s thunderous arrival may have convinced new users, it also drove others away, in successive waves. At the time of the takeover, when Internet users, scalded by the personality of the Tesla and SpaceX boss, preferred to leave the social network. In the weeks and months that followed, when Elon Musk made a series of controversial decisions: reducing the moderation team to a minimum, reinstating Donald Trump, charging for the blue badges that, until then, ensured the authenticity of an account… Or after October 7, 2023 and the Hamas attack on Israel, when the atmosphere became unbreathable on X. Among the deserters, celebrities like Elton John, Jim Carrey, Whoopi Goldberg and Trent Reznor.
Mastodon, mini success
Leaving Twitter, but to go where? “Join me on Mastodon,” some accounts had proclaimed as soon as the acquisition was made, encouraging their subscribers to follow them on this microblogging service, Twitter’s main competitor at the time. While it may look like Twitter at first glance (messages limited to 500 characters and similar features), its philosophy is different. Mastodon, launched in 2016, is “open source” – meaning that anyone can access its source code – and decentralized – meaning that anyone can create their own server, called an “instance,” with their own rules.
Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter had greatly benefited Mastodon. In one month, the number of registered users had increased from 3.6 to 5.4 million. He reaches Today 8.7 million. A nice progression, but it is clear that these new subscribers… do not necessarily use the social network. If the Musk earthquake had allowed Mastodon to exceed, for the first time, the million monthly active usersthey are not today more than 853,000 to connect to it at least once a month. A figure that is certainly twice as high as in October 2022. But not comparable to the 570 million monthly active users claimed by X.
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