The visit lasted less than 24 hours, but it caused a great deal of excitement: Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, landed in Taiwan on Tuesday evening. Today she met with the Taiwanese President, gave a press conference and flew again. In China, which considers Taiwan a breakaway province, the anger at this visit is high. Beijing reacts with a military maneuver and announces more. Simona Grano, a sinologist at the University of Zurich, explains whether the big escalation is imminent.
SRF News: How do you assess the military measures that China is taking?
Simona Grano: An hour after Pelosi’s arrival, China announced that the People’s Liberation Army would conduct a series of military exercises in the air and at sea around Taiwan this week. However, the sharpest reaction is to be expected in the coming weeks. These could include further military maneuvers in the Taiwain Strait and also communications disruptions.
If there is an attack by China on Taiwan, I don’t think it will be until after the party congress in the fall.
In addition, there could be tightened economic sanctions, trade suspensions and cyber attacks on critical infrastructure or even the blockade of Taiwan’s ports. Small Taiwan-controlled islands in the surrounding sea could also be occupied.
How big is the risk that China will attack Taiwan and implement the long-awaited reunification?
At the moment we can expect more symbolic military maneuvers. At the fall party congress, Xi Jinping is very likely to be confirmed for a third term. It is currently in his interest to keep the situation calm. It has been a difficult year for Xi and China. Also because of the economic recession caused by Xi’s zero-Covid policy. The real estate crisis is getting worse and youth unemployment is at a record high. If there is an attack by China on Taiwan, I don’t think it will be until after the party congress in the fall.
Couldn’t Xi have an interest in escalating tensions with Taiwan precisely because of domestic problems?
Absolutely. But that would have an impact on China’s domestic politics and social stability in the country. Taiwan’s economy would be destroyed, its investments in mainland China would collapse; approximately one million Taiwanese work in the People’s Republic of China.
The Taiwan issue has become an important topic in US politics. Since the Trump era, the question has become completely international. That’s the last thing China and Xi want.
Almost certainly the liberal democracies and other countries would impose sanctions on China. Even without these sanctions, investments and trade with China would be massively impaired. This would lead to significant unemployment and social instability. This could endanger the Chinese Communist Party even more.
China has imposed economic sanctions on Taiwan. How hard will it hit?
That is still open. Taiwanese officials are still assessing the potential damage from Chinese pressure. However, they agree that the damage is likely to be very high.
So, did Pelosi Taiwan harm their visit?
I would not say that. There are even voices that Taiwan is the big winner in this situation. The Taiwan issue has become an important topic in US politics. Since the Trump era, the question has become completely international. That’s the last thing China and Xi want. Especially in a situation of their own economic weakness.
The conversation was conducted by Simone Hulliger.