Three heads of government in Kyiv
A train journey changes the balance of power in the EU
By Thomas Dudek
03/16/2022 2:57 p.m
With their trip to the besieged Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, the heads of government of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia are not just sending a sign of solidarity. It is also a sign of the new self-confidence of the East-Central European EU states towards France and Germany.
Did the prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia have an official mandate from the European Union for their trip to besieged Kyiv? Or was it more of a quick action by three heads of government from East Central Europe? This is one of the most important questions Europe has been asking itself around the visit to Kyiv by Czech Republic’s Petr Fiala, Poland’s Mateusz Morawiecki and Slovenia’s Janez Jansa, as well as Jarosław Kaczyński, the all-powerful leader of Poland’s ruling national-conservative PiS.
Even if Poland’s government spokesman Piotr Müller stressed that “the delegation de facto represented the European Union, the European Council”, the emphasis must be placed on “de facto”. According to information from Brussels, EU Council President Charles Michel and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen were informed about the plans last week at the sidelines of an EU summit. But the trip took place without an official mandate from Brussels. Only on Tuesday night, a few hours before the start of the trip, did Morawiecki, von der Leyen and Michel consult each other.
But no matter whether with or without a mandate: The dangerous train journey of the four politicians has the potential to change the balance of power within the European Union in the long term. Because even if France and Germany may see themselves as the driving forces of the EU, it was the heads of government of three East Central European states – two of whom, Morawiecki and Jansa, have also been criticized for their interference with the rule of law – who took on the responsibility to show their solidarity to Ukraine in these difficult days. That deserves respect.
Beware of the Kremlin’s imperial appetites
However, it would be too easy to reduce the trip to this well-received expression of solidarity. The Prime Ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia also pursued their own interests, which is hardly surprising. Due to their proximity to Ukraine, the three states are directly affected by the war that has been raging for three weeks now. This is impressively demonstrated by the number of refugees: almost two million refugees from the Ukraine have come to Poland alone, which cannot be overlooked in the Polish capital, for example. As Warsaw’s Lord Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski announced a few days ago, the city with its 1.8 million inhabitants has taken in around 300,000 refugees. Although not all of them will stay permanently, there is currently one Ukrainian refugee for every six residents. And the numbers continue to rise.
It should also not be forgotten that with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Warsaw, Prague, Bratislava and the capitals of the Baltic states there is growing concern that they themselves may fall prey to the Kremlin’s imperial appetites. These concerns are fueled by Russian President Vladimir Putin, for example with his disturbing history lesson at the end of February, in which he justified the recognition of the self-proclaimed “people’s republics” in Donetsk and Luhansk and described the independence of the once-Tsarist states as a mistake on Lenin’s part. In East-Central Europe, more than in the West, the Ukrainian resistance against Putin’s army is interpreted as a fight for one’s own freedom. The train trip to Kyiv should also emphasize this.
However, Kaczynski’s proposal for an armed NATO “peacekeeping mission” can be described as irritating. This proposal is unlikely to find approval among the NATO partners because of the justified concern that the war will escalate even further.
But Kaczynski’s proposal also seems contradictory at first glance given Poland’s attitude towards arms deliveries to Ukraine. The best example is the old Soviet Polish Air Force MiG-29 fighter jets, the delivery of which was discussed last week. After a long back and forth, Poland agreed to hand them over to the United States – from the US base in Ramstein they should then go to Ukraine.
Demand on the NATO partners
The proposal revealed how much Poland fears being drawn into the war. And not without reason: the Polish military is in a miserable state. “The Polish armed forces are not ready for combat and mobilization. Our armed forces are not even able to carry out a small defensive operation,” says a report published just a week before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Therefore, Kaczyński’s proposal can be understood more as a demand on the NATO partners to get more involved with the East-Central European alliance states.
Contrasting with Kaczyński’s call for an armed “peace mission” is Mateusz Morawiecki’s statement regarding possible arms deliveries to Ukraine. The Polish Prime Minister deliberately spoke of defensive weapons, which he did not even promise directly. Instead, he explained that “an effort will be made to organize this”. In any case, announcements of concrete deliveries of weapons sound different.
Much more important, however, are his statements regarding Ukraine’s accession to the EU. “The European Union must very quickly give Ukraine candidate status and we want to invite Ukraine into the EU,” Morawiecki said in the presence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, who signed an application for EU membership a few days after the war began.
Prototype 2008 in Tbilisi
With this declaration, the new self-confidence of Poland, the Czech Republic and other East Central European countries in relation to Paris and Berlin was revealed. For years, the region has expressed disappointment with the policies of France and Germany towards Russia. Enormous distrust has grown in Germany in particular in recent weeks.
Many critics now feel confirmed by the invasion of the Russian army – which the four politicians showed with their train journey, despite all the dangers, with self-confidence. But the trip of US President Joe Biden in the coming week also shows that the foreign policy balance of power within the EU is shifting. He will not only visit the NATO headquarters in Brussels, but will also travel from there to Poland.
That would be the end of a development that began in 2008. Because the three heads of government who traveled to Kyiv yesterday have a well-known role model that also explains why Jarosław Kaczyński was on the train: In August 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, the then Polish President, the Kaczyński President who died in an accident in 2010, twin brother Lech, a flight to the threatened capital Tbilisi. He was accompanied by the then presidents of Ukraine and the three Baltic states. “Today Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine, the day after tomorrow the Baltic States and later it may be my country, Poland,” said Lech Kaczyński in Tbilisi at the time.