“To decarbonize the economy, only vigorous public policies will be up to the challenge”

LEuropean citizens expect the decarbonisation of our economies: if possible, limit global warming to 1.5°C in 2050 compared to pre-industrial temperatures, which means starting without delay a drastic reduction in emissions to reach the “zero emissions” objective. net” (ZEN) in 2050. And the first target pointed out by environmental associations is the oil and gas industry, which provides the weapon of climate crime: the carbon from hydrocarbons and natural gas contributes greatly to global warming.

The few European oil and gas operators are sensitive to these expectations, which they sometimes perceive during general meetings of shareholders agitated and publicized. They all respond to it in more or less the same terms, by planning the gradual decarbonization of their activities by 2050. Their programs are quite credible: they include in particular the elimination of routine flaring of gas in refineries (natural gas not economically recoverable and currently burnt), and the reduction of leaks throughout the production and transport cycle. But these operator-controllable emissions are only the tip of the iceberg. Environmental organizations are not mistaken, asking to freeze new projects.

Also listen IPCC advice for breaking away from fossil fuels

The problem is that demand from end consumers for fossil fuels is not weakening. Major operators can certainly offer low-carbon energies, but they are quite powerless to modify the level and structure of demand. The objective of reducing final consumption by 40% in 2050, recalled by Emmanuel Macron, in Belfort, in February, is ambitious. Only vigorous public policies will be up to the challenge; they must be based on constraint (off-market rental of thermal colanders), on aid for the conversion of customers and suppliers, and on the increase in the price of CO2 under conditions ensuring equity between users. In the meantime, energy operators are preparing their low-carbon energy offers, but they must also satisfy a demand for fossil energy which is still preponderant, even if it is to decrease.

Limited resources

The low-carbon energy offers of all current operators are growing rapidly from two resources: biomass and low-carbon electricity. But this strategy faces a triple reality: what uses should the biomass, which is only available in limited quantities, be used for? How to convert the demands of users who will not have access to biomass to electricity? How to provide during the transition the carbon energy that customers will continue to demand?

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