The first models of the ID.3 are late, but they are here. There is a lot of criticism of the new electric car, but there are also optimistic voices: At the end of the year, Volkswagen could be market leader in Europe for electric vehicles and in three years' time it could have overtaken Tesla worldwide.
It is finished. Volkswagen handed over its first ID.3 to customers in Dresden and Wolfsburg with a long delay. It was a difficult birth. But with the market launch of the Group's most important model by far, the electric turnaround can finally begin. According to the company, more than 25,000 units of the first edition, which is limited to 30,000 cars, have been sold so far.
CEO Herbert Diess should be relieved. Volkswagen has achieved an important stage victory on its determined path into the electric age. The success or failure of his e-strategy will determine nothing less than his position in Wolfsburg. The 61-year-old has put everything on one card. Huge sums have already flowed into the ID.3, the compact SUV ID.4 and the electric Bulli ID.Buzz – across the group it will total 33 billion euros by 2024.
The aim is to become the market leader in electromobility and, in the future, to overtake the electric pioneer Tesla. Is that realistic? Finally, there were concerns: the ID.3 is a long time coming, instead of being launched in summer, it will not be available until September. Then Diess' attempt to convince electrical pioneer Elon Musk of the car on a joyride fails to wrest at least a little praise from him. Diess itself has to dampen the expectations of the multi-billionaire: The ID.3 is a "mainstream car, not a racing car," he explains in front of the camera for a video that will later be posted on the Internet.
And last but not least, the new electric car, which is actually supposed to bring the Wolfsburg-based company on a par with Tesla, also fails a test by the specialist press. "Sprühdosig" and "Verhau", it says in a slap. The purely battery-powered car impresses with its driving characteristics, but there is "considerable need for improvement" in terms of electronics. The navigation system was only limited and other online services did not work at all. The workmanship also leaves a lot to be desired, it doesn't even remind of proven models like the Golf, writes "Auto, Motor, Sport". It couldn't have been worse at the beginning.
"Electric boom with the handbrake on"
From the point of view of experts, that does not change the fact that the strategy of the largest German car manufacturer is still correct. According to a study by the Chemnitz Automotive Institute, Volkswagen is catching up with power in terms of electromobility. According to the authors' calculations, the group will be the market leader in Europe by the end of 2020. "By 2025, around 40 percent of the electric cars produced in Europe will come from the brands of the Volkswagen Group," the study says.
Volkswagen is clearly benefiting from the state-decreed shift from combustion to electric mobility, exacerbated by the consequences of the corona pandemic. Both have left deep marks. The demand for cars in Europe will shrink by three million or more than 20 percent in the crisis year 2020 compared to the previous year. At the same time, however, the share of new registrations of fully electric cars has increased significantly. In the first half of the year, the Stromer recorded an increase of 30 percent. For the year as a whole, the study even expects an increase of 66 percent. The absolute numbers are still small. The experts predict that the development will continue to gain momentum. "It is an electric boom with the handbrake on, which will gradually be released in 2021/2022," the authors say.
Car expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer is also convinced of the Wolfsburg-based e-strategy. There is also a lot that speaks for the ID.3. Compared to previous mid-range electric cars, the basic equipment is relatively cheap, and it should also be able to cover longer distances. In addition, the same platform is used at group subsidiaries such as Audi, Skoda or Seat: The MEB modular system is the basis for numerous future models.
"The ID3 is the future of VW"
But that's not enough for a rocket launch into the age of electromobility. Diess itself had to admit that improvements need to be made. From a global perspective, Volkswagen will need a few more years before it is on a par with Tesla. That VW will become the world market leader by the end of 2020 is "very unlikely," says Dudenhöffer ntv.de. The production capacities of the US competitor are around 700,000, "VW can't reach that." "The ID.3 has only just started and we don't yet know how the ID.4 will run." In addition, Volkswagen must now ramp up production and win customers.
According to Dudenhöffer's calculations, Tesla has a lead of around two years when it comes to electric vehicle development alone. With software or IT, it's even five years. Tesla is the only e-car manufacturer that can install updates to its vehicles "on air" outside the workshops. Tesla has produced a chip specifically for this.
Before Volkswagen is able to overtake Tesla, it could take "up to three years", predicts Dudenhöffer. But at least Diess managed to reduce the gap. "The ID.3 is the future of VW." But Tesla will not rest in the meantime either. "In five to ten years, Tesla will be as big as BMW or Daimler," the auto expert continues. Diess did a "great job". Dudenhöffer doesn't dare to say whether his job is safe. The eternal illness of Volkswagen is the structure, the power of the state of Lower Saxony and the union. She could thwart Diess at any time.
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