LFarmers are not the only ones who think the world is going on its head. Like the signposts that they have returned to the towns and villages of France, Europe seems to be working in reverse. Germany plunged into crisis in 2023, with a decline in activity (− 0.1%), when Spain, with its 2.5% increase in its gross domestic product (GDP), does much better than the European average (0.5%). There is no longer any question for Berlin of mocking the laxity of the “Club Med” countries.
This divergence is not the only one to come to light at the start of 2024. On the employment front, it is just as strong, but does not follow the same geography. Throughout the Old Continent, as in the United States, the figures have rarely been so positive in this area. The unemployment rate, of 6.4% in Europe, at the end of 2023, is two points below that of 2018.
Full employment is within reach, while growth has been broken by inflation, particularly in the field of energy, and for some, like Germany, by the fall in markets in China. As economist Philippe Crevel recalls in his economic report of February 10, in the 1990s, it was considered that at least 2% growth per year was needed to reduce unemployment. Today, we are reaching records, even in France, with sluggish growth. This is the new divergence, which seems to contradict the fundamentals of classical economics.
The question of training and the attractiveness of professions
This surprising situation is generally explained by job shortages, which discourage companies from letting go of their staff. Shortages linked to a poor match between supply on the labor market and demand from employers. This is the case for caregivers as well as for computer scientists or welders. Which raises the double question of training and the attractiveness of the professions.
Behind this lack of personnel lies the structural phenomenon of demographic aging. There are not enough new arrivals to fill the void left by massive retirements.
Thus, France gained 1.2 million jobs between 2019 and 2023, passing the 21 million mark in the private sector. Good news for the government, which is banking more than ever on increasing its employment rate to escape the budgetary trap in which it is seriously trapped. If the percentage of the active population in work reached the 75% to 80% observed in Northern Europe, or ten points more than currently, its deficit problem would be solved by contributions and tax revenues.
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