A contact group should negotiate with Russia and Ukraine. This is what top diplomat Thomas Greminger has proposed. He is critical of Russia not being invited to Bürgenstock.
At the beginning of the week, Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis made it clear that Switzerland ultimately did not invite Russia to the Bürgenstock summit because Ukraine did not want this. Top Swiss diplomat Thomas Greminger takes a critical view of this: “Switzerland would have made itself less vulnerable if it had invited Russia,” says the director of the Geneva Center for Security Policy. “I would probably have invited both,” said Greminger in the SRF Saturday review. But perhaps he does not have all the information.
Legend:
Selenski and Amherd at the summit on the Bürgenstock. Russia, the warring party, is missing.
Keystone/ALESSANDRO DELLA VALLE
Proposal for contact group with Switzerland and Türkiye
Switzerland must produce an impartial final declaration on Sunday, said Greminger. “The final declaration or the official media conference must send the signal that peace is only possible with all parties to the conflict at the negotiating table.” When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Greminger, as Swiss ambassador to the OSCE, led negotiations with both states. Based on the experiences from that time, he suggests smaller, confidential discussion formats as the next step – specifically a contact group with Russia, Ukraine, the USA and other states. Switzerland could also play a role as a moderator, as a discussion leader: “Why not Switzerland together with Turkey?” says Greminger. “The idea may not work now, but it will in a few months.”
The Geneva Center for Security Policy is already thinking about what a provisional order in Ukraine could look like if the parties could agree on a ceasefire. Then Western security guarantees for Ukraine would be needed. Such questions could be discussed confidentially in a contact group. A provisional dividing line between Ukraine and the Russian-occupied Ukrainian regions is not ruled out. “That is simply the experience from many conflicts,” says Greminger. Often there is no other option – even if this effectively rewards the aggressor.
Even in Moscow, no one knows Putin’s war aims
Thomas Greminger is one of the few Western diplomats who has been able to maintain contact with the Russian side. In April, he accepted an invitation to an arms control meeting in Moscow. “For me, that was more of an excuse to talk to important experts and government representatives,” said the Swiss. At the moment, only a few Russian interlocutors dare to talk openly about, for example, a conflict solution via security guarantees to Ukraine. “No one dares to do that because even in Moscow they don’t really know what the president’s war aims are.” But he hears that Switzerland’s perception is much better than the official narrative of the Foreign Ministry.
Legend:
Thomas Greminger at a security conference in Geneva on October 1, 2021.
Keystone/MARTIAL TREZZINI
The Russia expert is concerned about indoctrination – this includes the campaign against Federal President Viola Amherd on state television. Children are already being indoctrinated in schools. He wonders what attitudes this will lead to among people, says the top Swiss diplomat. “A rapprochement with the West will be incredibly difficult.”