(Boursier.com) — TotalEnergies ended the week up 0.8% at 56.15 euros on Friday, keeping an eye on oil prices with a barrel of brent returning to $76 this morning. Among the latest brokers’ opinions, Deutsche Bank raised its target from 56.2 to 59.8 euros with a ‘keep’ opinion, while Berenberg had already adjusted the target to 67 euros with a recommendation to buy. Adjusted net income, TotalEnergies share, stood at $6.541 billion in the 1st quarter (compared to $8.977 billion in the 1st quarter of 2022), mainly due to the drop in oil and gas prices.
Adjusted diluted net earnings per share stood at $2.61 in the 1st quarter of 2023, compared to $3.40 a year earlier.
Back to shareholder
As part of its shareholder return policy, in the first quarter of 2023 TotalEnergies bought back 32.2 million shares with a view to their cancellation, for an amount of $2 billion.
TotalEnergies’ net cash flow amounted to $3.201 billion in the 1st quarter of 2023 ($8.723 billion a year earlier), taking into account the $2.005 billion drop in cash flow and the $3.517 billion increase $ net investments at $6.42 billion this quarter.
Prospects displayed
After several quarters of exceptionally high margins on diesel, European refining margins are falling amid expectations of weaker economic growth and high inventories of petroleum products, fueled by Chinese exports and the faster-than-expected reorganization of flows Russians following the European embargo.
In the coming weeks, demand for petroleum products could be supported by the start of the summer period in the United States for gasoline, as well as the resumption of global air traffic for jets.
Expected average price…
Given the evolution of oil and gas prices over the last few months and the delay effect on the price formulas, TotalEnergies anticipates that its average LNG sale price should be between $10 and $12/ Mbtu in the 2nd quarter of 2023.
Given the high inventory levels at the end of winter, European and Asian gas prices should remain stable in the second quarter before rising in the second half of 2023, driven by gas restocking in Europe before winter and the recovery of demand in China in a context of limited growth in LNG production: the futures markets anticipate prices of around $18/Mbtu for the winter of 2023-24.
In terms of TotalEnergies’ activity in the second quarter of 2023, the Company anticipates hydrocarbon production of around 2.5 Mboe/d, LNG sales which should benefit from the restart of Freeport LNG and a rate of use of refineries up to more than 80% given the end of social movements in France.
The Company has confirmed its ‘guidance’ in terms of net investments of between $16 billion and $18 billion in 2023, including $5 billion in low-carbon energies.