Towards “weakly positive” growth in 2023?

The government forecasts growth of 1% in 2023. Much more than the estimate of the Banque de France, which forecasts an evolution between -0.5 and +0.8%.


The estimate of France’s GDP growth in 2023 by the Banque de France is much lower than that of Bercy.

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Lhe Governor of the Banque de France François Villeroy de Galhau said on Friday December 9 that he expected growth “probably weakly positive” in 2023, after a year in 2022 where it should reach 2.6%. “It will not be 2.6%” next year, he warned on France Info radio, but “probably weakly positive growth”. “I cannot rule out a recession, but that is not our central scenario,” added the head of the Banque de France, who is due to unveil his projections until 2025 next week.

In its latest estimate, the institution was counting on growth of between -0.5 and 0.8% of GDP in 2023, a more pessimistic estimate than that of the government, which is hoping for 1% growth. Benchmark international forecasters, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) anticipates GDP growth of 0.6% and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects 0.7% in 2023. tighter turn,” commented François Villeroy de Galhau on Friday.

“What we are excluding today is a hard landing for the French and European economy, given the signs of good resistance” of growth in France, which should stand at 0.1% in fourth quarter of 2022, according to the latest Banque de France business survey published on Thursday. After 2023, “we should return to a more normal course with progressively less inflation and more growth”, estimated the governor.

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