Trembling in the Elbphilharmonie
DFB-Elf has to worry about the European Championship draw
By Kevin Schulte
November 22, 2023, 11:19 a.m
After the poor performances against Turkey and Austria, any group in the draw for the 2024 European Championship finals can become a group of death for the German team. We show particularly complicated but also feasible constellations.
Friday, June 14, 2024, European Championship opening game in Munich. Germany against Turkey or Germany against Austria. It is possible that the DFB team will get a quick chance for revenge with their youngest test match opponents at the start of the home tournament. Or experienced another rude awakening. Next week, Saturday, December 2nd, the final round will be drawn in Hamburg’s Elbphilharmonie. 24 nations are divided into six groups with four teams each. Turkey and Austria are in the second of four lottery pots. The probability that Germany will meet one of the two teams during the preliminary round is at least a third.
Who is in which draw pot?
After all, and this is the only good news for the DFB team at the moment, Germany is guaranteed to avoid almost all of the heavyweights in European football for the time being. Portugal, France, Spain, Belgium and England are all in the first draw pot and therefore cannot be drawn as the hosts in Group A.
The only relevant factor for the division into the four draw pots is the performance in the qualification. As hosts, Germany is automatically placed in position A1 and will play its preliminary round games in Munich, Stuttgart and Frankfurt. The five best group winners in the qualifying groups will be distributed as group heads in groups B to F.
In pot two are Hungary, Turkey, Romania, Denmark and surprise team Albania as the five worst winners of the qualifying groups and Austria as the best second-placed nation. Draw pot three includes the Netherlands, Scotland, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. The three worst runners-up are in pot four, including defending champions Italy, Serbia and Switzerland. There will also be three wild card balls in the draw for the playoff winners that have yet to be determined. This means: Three of the six preliminary round groups will not be completed until the end of March.
- Draw pot 1: Germany (placed in Group A as hosts), Portugal, France, Spain, Belgium, England
- Draw pot 2: Hungary, Turkey, Romania, Denmark, Albania, Austria
- Draw pot 3: Netherlands, Scotland, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Czech Republic
- Draw pot 4: Italy, Serbia, Switzerland, 3x playoff winners
What could Germany’s EM group look like?
If Germany ends up in a group with Turkey, the Netherlands and Italy in its current form, Nagelsmann’s team wouldn’t have to worry about the knockout round. And this despite the fact that, as in the last two European Championships, even the four best third-place teams qualify for the round of 16.
If the draw goes optimally, the DFB team could also find themselves in a group with Albania, Slovenia and a playoff winner that has yet to be determined. The DFB officials would certainly have nothing to complain about if it were against Romania, Scotland and Serbia. The scenario with three neighboring countries in the group seems significantly more complicated: Austria, the Netherlands and Switzerland.
If you want to simulate the draw, click here.
Who will play in the playoffs?
Twelve national teams that presented themselves well in the 2022 Nations League can look forward to a kind of parachute. The best four teams from leagues A, B and C of the competition will play for the last three starting places in playoffs. Because only two teams from League A missed direct qualification, another team from League B moves up. A draw will be held this Wednesday at lunchtime to see whether Ukraine, Finland or Iceland will play in playoff tournament B or A. In addition, the best team from League D can also look forward to taking part in playoff tournament A. The details of Estonia’s strange playoff qualification can be found here.
After two semi-finals (no return leg), the decision will be made in the three playoff finals. The home right for the final games will be drawn separately.
- Playoff tournament A: Poland – Estonia (HF1), Wales – Finland/Ukraine/Iceland (HF2)
- Playoff tournament B: Israel – Ukraine/Iceland (HF1), Bosnia-Herzegovina – Finland/Ukraine (HF2)
- Playoff tournament C: Georgia – Luxembourg (HF1), Greece – Kazakhstan (HF2)
Who is missing?
The biggest disappointment in qualifying is probably Norway with the superstars Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard. The country’s golden generation once again failed to make it to the finals and has been waiting for qualification since the 2000 European Championship. Because the Nations League also turned into a fiasco in the last few meters, the last remaining chance was lost. In retrospect, even a single draw in Slovenia or Serbia at the end of the Nations League would have been enough for the playoffs, but both games were lost.
The end was just as serious for the Swedish national team, which finished behind Belgium and Austria in qualifying and even lost 3-0 in Azerbaijan. In the Nations League they played in the same group as Norway, but performed even worse. The kickers from the island of Ireland are also not even in the playoffs; both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland were far behind in the regular qualifying and Nations League.