A resignation that shouldn’t be: Sebastian Kurz is withdrawing from Austria’s Federal Chancellery, but remains as parliamentary group leader in the control room and is waiting for his comeback. But what looks like the next brilliant move is an act of desperation – with no prospect of success.
There are two stories why Sebastian Kurz finally announced his resignation as Chancellor on Saturday evening at 7.30 p.m. after a long back and forth. In the first version, sprinkled by the ex-chancellor and his environment, the statesmanlike thought matured in a nutshell on Saturday night that he did not want to lead the country into chaos and had to step aside for the good of the republic. The second version, rumored and confirmed by pretty much everyone else involved: his own party confronted Kurz with reality. After all that has become known since the raids on Wednesday, he simply could not remain head of government.
Kurz naturally woven his own story into his resignation speech. He is not concerned with personal interests or those of his party, but with Austria: “My country is more important to me than my person.” He himself wants to work as a club chairman in parliament, so as a parliamentary group leader. The ÖVP is selling it as a “step to the side”, you don’t have to be a political sniffer to smell the roast: Here someone wants to continue as the shadow chancellor until the time comes for a comeback. Sounds easy, but it’s far from plausible. Even if Sebastian Kurz does not want to admit it: The steep career of the former “wonder wuzzi” seems to be over, at least in the medium term. There are a number of reasons for this.
The investigation is far from over
Obviously, the now two-time ex-chancellor imagines his “step to the side” like in the Viennese waltz: a small pendulum step, and off you go again. The 35-year-old wants to hover over the Viennese political floor until the investigations peter out or are forgotten, only to end up in the Federal Chancellery again. However, nobody can say when the corruption hunters will be finished. First of all, they have to evaluate the material that they have confiscated from the Chancellery and the ÖVP headquarters. The “Kurier” even reports of further secret measures, i.e. planned raids. Who can guarantee that the next chance find won’t set off an even bigger political bomb? Over Kurz hangs not just a sword of Damocles, but an entire armory – it can take years before the ÖVP could go into new elections with a top candidate, Kurz, without worrying about revelations.
The legal proceedings have not even started
To make matters worse, the 35-year-old is threatened with charges in two cases. The procedure for alleged false testimony before the Ibiza Committee is to be decided this year; in the current corruption scandal, it could last until 2023. A few days ago the “Standard” clarified an unfortunately very serious question: “Could a chancellor also rule from prison?” The answer: A Federal Chancellor only automatically loses his office if the prison sentence is more than a year. Before that, however, the Federal President would probably remove him from office.
“I am the party” – that was once upon a time
In May 2017, Sebastian Kurz did not just take over the chairmanship of the ÖVP, he took over the entire party – under clear and tough conditions: all power to the new. Kurz installed his people in key positions, colored the party from black to turquoise and named it “New People’s Party – Sebastian Kurz List”. The power-conscious ÖVP heads of government in the federal states, the so-called provincial governors, have adhered to the good old maxim “fold hands, hold goschn” throughout the years of electoral success.
It was only 44 days ago that Kurz was confirmed as party leader with 99.4 percent of the vote, and on Thursday evening the governors assured him “100 percent support”. By Saturday, the party leaders had apparently noticed that the corruption investigators also lead the entire ÖVP as accused through the Association Responsibility Act.
Since then, the party friends have been taking steps to the side – away from the former savior. Tyrolean governor (Prime Minister) Günther Platter already speaks of a “black-green” coalition instead of a turquoise-green one, his Styrian counterpart Hermann Schützenhofer calls a return from Kurz to the Chancellery only a “theoretical” possibility. Vorarlberg’s governor Markus Wallner was furthest away: in the event of a conviction, he no longer even wanted to rule out exclusion from the party. Whatever his role in the ÖVP – a Spitzenkandidat Kurz seems difficult to imagine, at least in the medium term.
Parliament is not Sebastian Kurz’s arena
When Sebastian Kurz was promoted from the Chancellery in the wake of the Ibiza crisis, at the time by means of a motion of no confidence, he still renounced his mandate in parliament. The little one in the National Council was not for him, he said, and issued the motto: “Today parliament has decided, but in the end it is always the people who decide.”
When Chancellor Kurz had to answer to MPs, he often did not look at them, and MPs regularly asked Kurz to look up at least once on his cell phone. Parliament debates, the Chancellor decides, Kurz has always attached great importance to this division of labor. In any case, government work in Austria was always a duty, Kurz completed the freestyle at the United Nations or in Brussels with Joe Biden, Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron. Now his counterparts are Sigrid Maurer, Jörg Leichtfried, Beate Meinl-Reisinger and Herbert Kickl.
Election victories are not a safe ticket to the Federal Chancellery
Even if his nimbus survives the descent into the banality of everyday Austrian political life, even if the investigations do not reveal any new scandals and all trials end with acquittals, even if the old ÖVP submits again to a two-time ex-chancellor: how do they react? Voters at Sebastian Kurz’s next request to give him confidence and a vote? His popularity is still his greatest bargaining chip, he has led the ÖVP back close to 40 percent, even with a split he could remain a power factor in Austrian domestic politics. Alone: who would still want to form a coalition with him? He has already consumed the FPÖ and the Greens, leaving behind scorched earth; for an alliance with the SPÖ, Kurz would have to bury his decades of hatred. Nothing that should be called impossible in Austrian politics – but if Sebastian Kurz really did become Austrian Chancellor for the third time, he would really and without a doubt be a miracle whirlpool.