Trouble in the US House of Representatives
Escalating dispute threatens all crucial Ukraine aid
By Robin Grützmacher
April 9, 2024, 6:01 p.m
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Ukraine could lose the war without the $60 billion aid package from the US, says President Zelensky. After a break, the MPs return to the US House of Representatives, where the aid is stuck. Important days begin – and the next level of escalation is immediately triggered.
Almost at the same time as the US representatives returned to the House of Representatives after a two-week break, an ultra-right Republican dropped the next bombshell. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a strident Trump supporter, continues to campaign for the removal of her Republican colleague, House Speaker Mike Johnson. He is currently the all-important man when it comes to aid to Ukraine. Because Johnson would have to put the $60 billion package to a vote – to which there is some resistance in his party.
Before the House of Representatives’ two-week Easter recess, Taylor Greene submitted a motion to remove Johnson. Now, after the MPs return, she follows up with a letter and continues to increase the pressure to drive Johnson out of office. If this approach were successful, the House of Representatives would probably be paralyzed again for a long period of time until a new speaker was elected. And the important aid for Ukraine becomes a long way off.
In the recently published letter to Republican colleagues, Taylor Greene expresses her dissatisfaction. Among other things, she complains about a “loss of trust” and Johnson’s “collaboration with the Democrats.” The ultra-right is a staunch opponent of Ukraine aid – and uses it as a political football to harm Johnson.
Johnson wants to push forward aid to Ukraine, Greene wants to prevent it
The spokesman, who can basically imagine support for Ukraine, recently indicated that he would restart the billion-dollar aid. Johnson told the right-wing conservative broadcaster Fox News that after the parliamentary break they would push forward a “product, but it will contain some important innovations”. The break is now over – and the eyes of Ukraine and Europe are on the US House of Representatives.
What Johnson means by innovations: He would like to modify the $60 billion package that has already been approved in the other parliament, the Senate. One idea: Make the aid package available as a loan. Ukraine has already shown itself to be open to this. For example, the loan could be repaid after a victory in the war against Russia.
Another idea: Liquidate confiscated Russian assets and provide them as aid to Ukraine. Johnson would also like to end a moratorium by President Joe Biden’s administration on new permits for liquefied natural gas export facilities. Just as many Republicans are demanding.
Radical MPs like Taylor Greene, who would rather fight illegal immigration from Mexico with $60 billion, will probably not be convinced by a modified Ukraine aid package. Johnson announced to Fox News that he would meet with the ultra-right Trump supporter at the end of March. If this did take place, it was probably not peace-making. Otherwise, Greene would not continue to mobilize against the House Speaker and escalate the conflict.
Fall of Johnson rather unrealistic
It is currently unclear whether and when aid to Ukraine will be on the agenda in the House of Representatives. And it remains unclear whether and when a decision will be made about Johnson’s possible deselection. The Republicans only have a narrow majority in the House of Representatives. It is unrealistic that Taylor Greene unites almost the entire Republican faction, which is hopelessly divided, behind him in order to drive Johnson out of office.
The Democrats would probably support Johnson in order not to paralyze Parliament for a long period of time until a new speaker is elected and to further block aid to Ukraine. Then all it would take is a handful of Republicans to stick with Johnson – which is entirely possible – and there would be a majority to save him.
What also speaks in favor of Johnson: Even in the Republican ranks, many do not want the House to be paralyzed again for months as a result of his being voted out, as was the case with the chaos surrounding his predecessor Kevin McCarthy.
Ukraine aid is still up in the air
But rescuing Johnson is not the same as a positive vote on aid to Ukraine. This still requires a compromise that gets a majority in the House of Representatives. The current distribution of seats: Republicans 218, Democrats 213.
Taylor Greene has shown with her letter that she will continue to torpedo the compromise process by any means possible. But her voice and that of her camp are not needed if Republicans and Democrats come to an agreement to further help Kiev.
The MPs will now be in Washington for two weeks, after which there will be another week-long parliamentary break, where work will take place in their home districts. The members will not return to the House of Representatives until April 29th. A lot of time in which the Ukrainian armed forces will probably continue to face the Russian troops with a significant shortage of ammunition.