Por how long will the Americans continue to honor the security guarantees contracted with the Europeans within the framework of the Atlantic Alliance created in 1949, just seventy-five years ago? The hypothesis of a return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 can legitimately raise fears that American protection will not be eternal. “No, I won’t protect you!” »candidate Trump would have responded to a Western leader asking him if he would defend a European state attacked by Russia, but whose defense budget would be below NATO standards.
Already during his first term, President Trump criticized the Europeans for low military spending and showed his irritation at having to, as provided for in the founding treaty of NATO, provide them with protection against any external aggression. In the context of the Ukrainian crisis of 2014, NATO members made a commitment to devote 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to their defense budget by 2024. Ten years later, only a third of the 31 allies reached the 2% threshold. For Donald Trump, the others are “delinquents” and must “pay their debts”suggesting in passing that the expenditure budgets and possible payment arrears to NATO’s operating budget are confused.
But what is at stake here goes beyond financial questions. It is the credibility, even the existence of the Atlantic Alliance, which is likely to be called into question. Trump understands neither the need to maintain a strong security link with Europeans nor even the political and industrial utility of keeping them in a form of dependence. He undoubtedly has the political culture of someone who can unilaterally decide on the end of the Alliance without awareness of the numerous ramifications that the European instability thus created could have on the security of the Americans.
The fear of leaving NATO is even seriously considered within the American Congress, which adopted a law in December 2023 aimed at preventing a unilateral decision by the executive power. Vladimir Putin, for his part, must hope to see the return of an interlocutor with whom he could not only discuss, and if necessary decide the fate of Ukraine behind the backs of the Ukrainians and, of course, that of the Europeans, but also carefully undo the credibility of the Alliance.
Hope to maintain the link
For Europeans, the question then arises of what they must do to protect themselves from a possible American failure. Three scenarios are possible.
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