Trump marches, Biden fears
How can this man be stopped?
By Roland Peters, New York
March 7, 2024, 7:21 a.m
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No, he didn’t disappear from the scene, get overwhelmed by his legal problems or simply give up. Will Donald Trump become US President again? This is what pollsters and trends say about his chances.
Donald Trump was just a four-year aberration. The former US President is unable to gain a majority among the Republicans because of the insurrection on January 6, 2021. Trump will be convicted before the November election and will not be allowed to run. Nobody votes for him in the primaries because the Republicans don’t want to lose the actual elections. These and many other theses and hopes of his opponents have vanished into thin air. After Super Tuesday, Trump is almost bursting with self-confidence and certainty of victory.
President Joe Biden and the Democrats now have eight months to stop him. Is that manageable for them? The signs are currently rather bad, but better than Trump would have us believe. An overview.
Wants to convince voters again: US President Joe Biden.
(Photo: REUTERS)
The survey results have changed. Trump is in the nationwide Survey average ahead of Biden by 2.2 percentage points. That may not seem like much, after all, at the same time four years ago, the Democrat was ahead of the then incumbent Trump by 5.5 points and in the end only won because of a handful of narrowly decided states. But for weeks the trend has been clearly in favor of the Republican. Biden is also behind his challenger in several battleground states. Firstly, it is not certain whether this will remain the case until the vote is cast, and secondly, it is difficult to estimate how many voters might choose Biden just to prevent Trump.
Biden’s coalition of voters is crumbling. Young voters, however, a key part of his 2020 electorate, are critical of Biden’s Middle East policy, believe his climate policy is not rigorous enough, and many are still waiting for promised student loan forgiveness. Biden’s administration effectively gave up on public health insurance as an alternative to private providers, a key campaign promise, without really trying. A historically high proportion of black voters would also currently vote against the Democrats. However, the overwhelming majority will remain in Biden’s camp. In addition, the following also applies to these groups of voters: There are only two potential presidents in November, and whoever votes, according to the old political truism, chooses the lesser evil.
Trump’s legal problems are spiraling. If, but only if, Trump is convicted in his trials, some Republicans would probably jump on his heels. But after the Supreme Court’s past decisions on the “insurrection clause” of the Constitution because of the storming of Congress on January 6, 2021, on Trump’s possible criminal immunity and the soap opera in the state of Georgia, it is completely unclear what consequences the ex-president has to fear . Democrats shouldn’t rely too much on it.
The economy is booming, but voters are wary. The data looks good, there is almost full employment, but the upswing has not yet been able to compensate for the losses in purchasing power of recent years. Last weekend, a majority of Americans said the economy was in poor shape and 47 percent strongly disagreed with Biden’s administration – the worst figure during his presidency. If the income situation of the workforce improves or another issue emerges where Biden can shine, a trend reversal is possible. The Democrats also want to launch an information offensive and hammer home the positive aspects of “Bidenomics”.
The Senate majority could collapse. The Democrats’ slim majority is wobbling a lot. Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema left the party and will not seek re-election in November. Trump supporter Kari Lake is therefore expected to have a good chance of winning the seat. There is also another Senate seat for West Virginia, which is almost certain to go to the Republicans because the conservative Democrat Joe Manchin is not running again. With just one seat less in the Senate, the Democrats would have already lost their majority there if the vice presidency goes to the Republicans.
The electoral landscape is changing. If it remains the case that, as in 2020, the Democrats tend to be able to win support in the suburbs, among the middle class and especially among women, because these groups feel repelled to a large extent by Trump’s rhetoric, there is a narrow path for Biden. This effect may become even stronger if Haley’s voters and undecideds choose Biden to prevent Trump. The president’s strategists are planning accordingly: with a lot of money in the campaign coffers, they want to constantly emphasize the dangers of another Republican presidency. However, pollsters know from past presidential elections that the overwhelming majority ultimately rally around the candidate of the party to which they are actually close.
The presidential election campaign is only now beginning. Despite everything and although Trump would like to believe otherwise: the election is still a long time away, nothing has been decided and a lot can still happen. If Trump loses, Biden fears for democratic stability – he expects that he would not recognize defeat again. Stirring up fears about your opponent is part of the basics of the election campaign. Both sides will continue to do so over the next eight months.