Joe Biden celebrates his 80th birthday on Sunday. And many are wondering again: Isn’t he too old for a second term? Absolutely. But all of the Democratic alternative candidates appear to be the bigger risk. The signs point to a rerun against Trump.
President Joe Biden faces a tough decision over the next few months: Does he have the strength, will, and voter support to serve a second term?
Joe Biden’s old age is one of his weak points. He admits that himself. The concerns about this are “totally justified,” said the American President in a recent statement Interview with the TV channel MSNBC. “I could get sick tomorrow or drop dead.” But people shouldn’t judge him by his tree rings, but by his energy and passion for what he does. He doesn’t feel at all like an eighty-year-old: “I can’t say how old I’ll be. It won’t get past my lips.”
But whether he likes it or not, the American President will be 80 years old on Sunday. And on this day, the question will probably go through his head again as to whether he still has the strength, the will and the necessary support from the voters for a second term in office. After the midterm elections for the Democrats went better than originally expected, Biden repeated last week his previous mantra: “My intention is to compete again.” At the same time, however, this is also a question that he must discuss and decide together with his family. “We will make that judgment early next year.”
Good reasons against a second term
It might be a difficult decision. There are many good reasons for Biden not to run again: Firstly, 64 percent of American voters do not want the incumbent president to run again. After eight years with old men in the White House, the need for a blood boost seems great. By sending a younger candidate into the race, the Democrats could score even more points with voters should Trump be the Republican opponent.
In addition, Biden should not forget that he narrowly won the election against Trump in 2020. Overall, he received around 7 million more votes. But in the crucial swing states of Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, Biden only won the electors by a razor-thin margin Lead of 44 000 votes. During the election campaign he had also signaled that just an interim president wanting to be for a term pursuing moderate politics. “Nothing will change fundamentally,” Biden promised rich party donors. However, with a Democratic majority in both chambers of Congress, he then signed billions in spending programs and a minimum tax of 15 percent for large corporations.
In the next presidential election, it could therefore be more difficult for Biden to reach state-skeptical swing voters on the right of center. The decisive factor is whether the high inflation can be curbed without a painful recession. With their new majority in the House of Representatives, the Republicans will also try to damage the image of the incumbent with investigations into the questionable dealings of the president’s son Hunter Biden or the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. Depending on how the war in Ukraine plays out, this too could be a sore point for Biden. With a fresh candidate, the Democrats could let these attacks come to nothing.
Nevertheless, there seems to be more to speak for Biden’s renewed candidacy at the moment. One reason is Donald Trump. On Tuesday, he announced that he would run in the 2024 presidential race. If Trump runs again, there is a greater likelihood that he will stand for re-election, said Biden himself. He apparently sees it as his mission to protect the USA from another presidency of the narcissistic tribune of the people. He beat Trump once two years ago, and Biden is confident he will beat him a second time.
A second reason is the result of the midterm elections. Despite inflation and poor presidential approval ratings, the Democrats performed better than expected and retained the Senate. Above all, the swing voters in the swing states heard Biden’s loud warning calls: In keynote speeches during the election campaign, he criticized Trumpism and his supporters as an extremist threat to American democracy. While Trump emerges from the midterms weakened, Biden has gained a lot of goodwill, especially in his own ranks. In July, only 35 percent of Democrats wanted their president to run again, now it is around 45 percent.
Democrats have no clear hope
Other reasons in favor of Biden include the incumbent’s bonus, the lack of clear alternatives and the uncertainty that a competitive primary would bring. It is not certain whether the candidate who would have the best chance against Trump will win. Biden’s “natural heir” would be Vice President Kamala Harris. According to a survey in September, she would have been in a democratic preliminary round best chance at the moment. But Harris doesn’t come across as charismatic, and her approval ratings are high even lower than that of Biden. As a dark-skinned woman from California, it may not be easy for her to overcome the prejudices of voters in more conservative states.
In addition to the Vice President, Transport Minister Pete Buttigieg is considered a possible hope for the Democrats. The former mayor of a medium-sized Indiana city was the shooting star of the 2020 Democratic primary. The first openly gay cabinet member in the United States is eloquent and quick-witted. If Buttigieg were elected president, his husband would be the first first gentleman in American history. Here, too, it would have to be shown whether mainstream society is ready for such a novelty.
In addition to Harris and Buttigieg, two other women are considered promising candidates for 2024: on the one hand, there is Senator Amy Klobuchar. The moderate Democrat has as a presidential candidate achieved notable successes in the 2020 primaries. In particular, she did well with the white working class poached by Trump. On the other hand, Gretchen Whitmer could also follow in Biden’s footsteps. She won her re-election for governor in swing state Michigan by a margin of over 11 percent over a Trump nominee. Two years ago, Biden considered whether he Whitmer to be his vice presidentbut then chose Harris.
California Governor Gavin Newsom probably also has ambitions to succeed Biden. The handsome hospitality entrepreneur and former mayor of San Francisco easily won his re-election. He ran commercials in Florida and Texas criticizing the conservative policies of the governors there. “We have to go on the offensive and get off the damn defensive” says Newsom. It is quite possible that the aggressive Californian could take on Trump. In a primary, however, he would hardly go into the race as a favorite.
Whichever way you look at it, should Trump win the Republican nomination, Biden’s advanced age appears to be less of a risk for Democrats than the vagaries of an open primary. Ultimately, however, next spring the American President will have to decide for himself how he feels – regardless of his 80 years.